Syria's troubles, Friday, October 14, 2005

The bon ton in Israeli political circles this morning was almost gloating over the death of Ghazi Kenaan, the former Syrian strongman in Lebanon, who died either at his own hand or someone else's in his office as the all-powerful Interior Minister of Syria on Yom Kippur eve.

Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom was quoted as saying 'the noose is tightening' around the Alawite-Baathist regime in Damascus. Analyses all around agreed that whatever the cause of Kenaan's death, the upcoming UN report on the assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri will incriminate the Damascus regime, either directly or indirectly.

'This coming year will be the year of Syria,' said Ehud Yaari, the veteran Arab affairs commentator, on Channel Two. Yaari was implying that big changes are coming down the road for Syria in the form of U.S. and French pressure, through the UN, on Bashar Assad. The Syrian president, catapulted into office by his father five years ago, insists that he and his regime had nothing to do with the Hariri assassination, which sounds odd considering that in the days before Hariri's assassination the late billionaire was often heard saying that Bashar had personally threatened him if Hariri went through with his own plans to challenge the Syrian hegemony in Lebanon.

But in any case, whatever happens in Syria this coming year, it won't be the year in which Israel and Syria strike a peace deal. Indeed, among veteran Syria watchers there is deep concern about too much pressure on the Damascus regime bringing it down with no alternative in sight. The chaos that might ensue could rival Iraq's, and if the Americans are having problems now with the Syrian-Iraqi border, chaos in Syria could completely erase the border. Assad's claims to CNN that he cannot guarantee no infiltrations over the Syrian-Iraqi border sound hollow considering that except for a handful of exceptions over the last 32 years since the Yom Kippur War, Israel's quietest border has been the one with Syria, on the Golan Heights.

In short, the Assad interview with CNN, and the Kenaan suicide or assassination didn't change anything in Israel. Sharon will toe the American line, which he says has been that Israel should refrain from even trying to conduct business with Assad. Perhaps. More likely, he simply doesn't want to have to sign anything that hands over the Golan to Damascus, even in exchange for the kind of peace that would make it possible for Israelis to drive to Europe, perhaps the greatest Israeli dream of all.

So, the Palestinian front remains the only one that truly interests him. Today, his vice premier, Shimon Peres, was to meet with Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat, to try to resolve outstanding issues regarding the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt. Israel is worried about that border becoming a gateway for jihadists and others with violence on their agenda. The Palestinians have indicated readiness for a third party other than Egyptians and Palestinians to monitor the border crossing. The border was opened early this week, to allow some 6,000 Gazan Palestinian pilgrims to Mecca for Ramadan into Egypt, from which they traveled to Saudi Arabia for hajj. At the same time, several hundred Gazans who had crossed into Egypt looking for work came home, disappointed with the way they were treated there.

Egypt meanwhile has reportedly invited Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz to discuss border issues. Indeed, since the disengagement, there has been a dispute over authority between Mofaz and Peres, with Peres saying he has a mandate from Sharon to be responsible for all the civilian matters concerning Gaza – including border crossing issues. Already, it is the Interior Ministry, not the Defense Ministry, running the border control stations at Erez and the other crossings. But Mofaz, as defense minister, still sees the entire issue of Gaza in the post-disengagement era as a matter of security, and wants authority to make decisions about where people cross the border as opposed to goods, for example. The Egyptians might only want to discuss better coordination along the entire Egyptian-Israeli border, a fenceless no-man's land where smugglers of contraband – and people – have operated for years, countered only by a relatively small, special operations unit. But if they are going to be discussing the border crossings with Peres, it could ignite the smoldering tension between the two.

Peres, in any case, is in charge of the Labor Party – the latest polls show that he wins the party's primaries handily. But the polls also say that even Labor's voters want Sharon as prime minister presumably on the assumption that the prime minister has a plan up his sleeve to continue the disengagement from the Palestinians, whether unilaterally or by agreement with PA President Mahmoud Abbas.

Sharon and Abbas are dancing a delicate waltz dictated by Israeli and Palestinian democracy. The Palestinians are heading into elections at the end of January 2006. Israel's elections are only slated for November 2006. Even if Sharon has a major move out of much of the West Bank settlements (except the so-called blocs), he's probably arguing to himself he can't make that move without a mandate from the electorate. Abbas is meanwhile explaining to all and sundry that he has to wait until the January elections, which are expected to result in a significant, though not necessarily dominant Hamas presence in the Palestinian parliament, before he can crack down on Hamas' military wing. Once the Hamas is in parliament, he's saying, it won't have legitimate cause for its weapons, since it will have to abide by the 'one law, one authority, one weapon' rule that Abbas has made his platform since he was elected to replace the late Yasser Arafat.

In any case, Israel is heading into another week of holidays next week. Sukkot, the Feast of Tabernacles. It's a week of half days at work, long weekends taken either at the beginning of the week or the end, and not much will get done. The press, which during the holidays has been much less interested in politics and Israel's relations with the Arabs than it has been interested in how local celebrities are spending their holidays, will have to dig up some more human interest stories to fill the pages. It won't be difficult. It's said that this year, one out of three Israeli children are living under the poverty line. No doubt some of them and their families will show up in next week's newspapers, because right after next week's holidays, in early November, the Knesset will begin its annual debate on the budget. Populism will be the mood.

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