Confusing signals, Thursday, September 29, 2005

Israel killed a Fateh-related Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade commander in the West Bank last night, when the man resisted arrest during one of the nightly raids against militants in the West Bank, while the army and the Palestinian armed forces maintained communications and set up a joint headquarters similar to the one that worked so smoothly during the disengagement, as West Bank Palestinians went to the polls in 104 local council elections. The vote will be watched carefully as an indicator of the Palestinian mood in the post-disengagement era.

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister’s Office has been adamantly denying there are any plans for more unilateral withdrawals from settled areas, as Israel moves to draw its final borders with the Palestinians, but the prime minister’s closest strategic advisor. Eyal Arad openly spoke of doing just that and was followed the next day by outgoing Military Intelligence chief Aharon Zeevi Farkash, saying more or less the same thing. Sharon is insisting, says his office, that the roadmap is the only way to go now. We’ll see.

And while Israel continues its campaign against Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other armed groups – all of which have announced their reiterated commitment to the tahidiya, the Palestinian Authority is both warning that outside intervention might be necessary to end the current violence, but it is blaming the militants, not Israel, for the glass-busting sonic booms over Gaza (and occasional missile strikes at offices and so-called munitions workshops) and the arrests in the West Bank. And in Gaza, at least two PA policemen were wounded last night in a battle with armed men who were planning to launch a Qassam. The rocket was not fired.

The Israelis are hoping that the Hamas’ reputation was so badly tarnished by its insistence on blaming Israel for an explosion that killed at least 21 Palestinians last weekend in Jabalya – when the Palestinian street and official PA announcements make clear that everyone knows it was Hamas’ own folly that led to the deadly blasts – that the Islamic fundamentalist group will not make much inroads in the West Bank town and village votes.

In any case, Hamas is much wreaker in the mostly secular, middle class West Bank, where secular education is highly prized as a means to social advancement, than it is in Gaza, where its charities were the driving force behind its popularity among impoverished Palestinians living in refugee camps.

Still, the Hamas made inroads in the last round of elections in the West Bank, creating anomalies such as the elected mayor of Jenin being in Israeli detention, while IDF liaison officers work with locally elected officials who are from Hamas and now are running city hall, with matters like infrastructure repairs and other day to day dealings between the occupation power and the local community.

Indeed, Hamas – and Palestinian liberal democrats – are arguing that the Israeli arrests of more than 400 activists from both political and military wings of the various militant groups are meant to disrupt the Palestinian elections, both those taking place today and those for the national legislature in January 2006.

There’s no doubt that the dominant view in the Israeli political echelons and the general staff is that Hamas must be prevented from taking part in the elections – at least as long as it is armed and using those arms against Israelis. But there are increasing numbers of voices, including from the Center, arguing that if the Hamas is as powerful as at least Israeli media makes it out to be, it is time for Israel to bite the bullet and start talking directly with the Islamic fundamentalist group, as long as they take certain steps like ridding their covenant of the vow to eliminate the entire state of Israel, and of course, put down their weapons.

Seemingly, they have indeed put down their weapons in the last 48 hours, with no Qassam fire into the Negev from Gaza, as promised by Hamas leaders there and at least some Islamic Jihad spokesmen there as well. But the Israeli pressure continues – with strident rhetoric from military commanders as well as hawkish politicians about how the pressure will continue until the Palestinian Authority does what Israel is doing. So far, Abbas is pitching his rhetoric against the armed irregulars higher and higher but aside from some isolated incidents, like the one in Gaza last night, his armed forces are not using their overwhelming numbers to crack down on the 3,000 armed Hamas men, the 500 armed Islamic Jihad, and the few hundred self-acclaimed members of Fateh-affiliated al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, the three main armed groups.

The State Department reportedly is already beginning to apply pressure on Israel to cease its campaign, while applying pressure on Abbas to make some move against any of the armed groups that violate the new consensus in Palestinian society and politics against parading with weapons. Furthermore, he is warning that any Palestinian who violates the ceasefire against Israel is essentially a traitor to the Palestinian cause. That’s a clear warning, but the question remains if he can back it up with action -- if the armed groups decide to break the cease fire because of the constant Israeli pressure on them.

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