Not yet Meretz, Tuesday, September 27, 2005

The premier’s advisors are divided this morning on the significance of the relatively narrow victory in the Likud central committee. For one thing, Sharon lost an excuse to quit the party, resign and force snap elections after 90 days, waltzing to victory at the head of a new party, as some suggest he do on the basis of polls that repeatedly show Sharon as a titan on a field of dwarves. Some Sharon advisors are saying that it was Netanyahu who defined the vote as a watershed moment, a choice between him, representing ‘the Likud way’ and Sharon who would turn the Likud into Meretz, and the choice was made. Some say Netanyahu’s bragging about continuing the fight is hollow, since rebels are already trying to avoid a night of long knives by swearing fealty to ‘the Likud’s decision.’ And some are whispering that now is the time for just such a night of long knives, driving the rebels out of a revamped Likud.

But advisors are just advisors –Sharon decides. Though he is famous for daring, risky ventures, he actually plans far in advance. His military career taught him that the riskiest of plans can be conducted with safety if the element of surprise is combined with preparing for what can go wrong. And he’s been lucky lately, always helpful in a battle. Police sources are saying they’ll never figure out who was responsible in the surging pavilion at the Tel Aviv Exhibition Grounds, where Sharon’s microphone was cut off just as he rose to speak. He’s lucky because the holidays are almost upon Israel, and the public – as long as terror doesn’t strike too badly – will be oblivious to politics for the next month.

And there is a good chance of terror subsiding– unless the spirit of vengeance prevails on either side. One of the leading political chiefs of Hamas figures in Gaza, Mohammad a Zahar announced a complete commitment to the hudna – he used that word, meaning prelude to a formal truce or even peace, and not tahadiye, meaning ‘lull’ in fighting. He said the Hamas would not use Gaza as a launching ground for attacks on Israel, again significantly using the name of the state rather than ‘Zionist entity.’

No less significantly, Shaul Mofaz, the Israeli defense minister, said that’s not enough; he wants to hear more Hamas leaders say the same. True, he also said that if the people of Sderot feel unsafe ‘so will the leadership’ of the terror groups. Indeed, the Israeli military is keeping up the pressure on the Palestinians – meaning mostly Hamas and Islamic Jihad, but also smaller groups and Fateh-affiliated Al Aqsa Martyrs brigades men – ever since the weekend round of violence, with more arrests in the West Bank and overnight, a few missile strikes against Hamas weapons storehouses in Gaza. Particularly worrisome to the Palestinians, is that some of those arrested in the current waves of arrests are political candidates for the Palestinian Legislative Council, said Israel Radio’s correspondent in the territories, Avi Issacharoff.

Israel wants to set new rules, in which violations of the ceasefire will be countered with much broader steps, trying to enforce the ceasefire with intimidation, or as Mofaz said, ‘until there’s zero attacks,’ adding, ‘We’ll decide when we stop.’ The Palestinians say that the Israeli pressure is now meant to enhance Sharon’s popularity – and they are worried that it might continue all the way into the Israeli election season, meaning to the primaries in the Likud some time in the spring.

But Israel does not exist in a vacuum – that’s one of the things Sharon saw from the Prime Minister’s Office that he did not see beforehand, making him change his mind on the settlements. So, Mofaz’s comments can also be read as a hint that if indeed more Hamas men come out with orders to Hamas military units to cease fire, he, meaning Sharon, will ease the pressure on Hamas – as long as the organization sticks to non-violent politics as the Palestinian election campaign swings into top gear.

Sharon’s basic demand is that Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, which is Fateh-owned, and all the other organized gangs be disarmed before any political progress can be made. But he had slated a meeting with Palestinian President for Sunday, October 2. That meeting was canceled because of the Qassam fire. But the international pressure is now going to resume on Sharon, especially if the Hamas and other groups do stick to the hudna, as they announced they would again this morning. Still, Israel military sources say they continue to receive terror alerts, admittedly more from the West Bank now, than from Gaza. Indeed, last night, tens of thousands of Israelis in rush hour traffic north of Tel Aviv paid a price for terror alerts, as the army and Shin Bet clamped down on the area in a pinpoint search for a terror cell supposedly on the move into Israel.. An elderly Palestinian woman and a 30-year-old man were said to have been arrested, though it was not reported for what. The traffic jams made the Likud central committee to keep the balloting going an extra hour. And 91 percent of the 3,050 central committee members did show up to vote, an extraordinarily high percentage for any democratic institution, particularly one so at odds with itself. The turnout – 2,789 members, who split with a 104 vote difference for a 51.4%-47.7% split (the difference in percent is derived from abstention ballots) – was proof of the seriousness of the voting. It may not have turned the Likud into Meretz, but it reflects a dynamic evident in the Israeli street ever since the disengagement passed so smoothly – that the Israeli public wants its leader to at least make an effort for peace.

More news from today || Yesterday's situation (Archive)

© Today's Situation From Ariga, http://www.ariga.com by Robert Rosenberg; Feel free to pass this page on, including this line: Subscribe to get it daily by email -- or unsubscribe -- at http://www.ariga.com/signup.shtml >>>>>>>>>>RSS Feed

Feed Shark

Today's Situation || Yesterday's Situation