Border controls, Wednesday, September 14, 2005

Masked Hamas men blew up a temporary barrier put up last night by Palestinian and Egyptian security forces between Gazan Rafah and Egyptian Rafah, according to Israel Radio at noon, with the Hamas men reportedly vowing that for every open crossing between the two Rafahs that gets closed by the authorities, the Hamas will open ten others.

For the people of both Rafahs, which were separated by the Israeli withdrawal from Sinai in 1981, when Egypt refused to take Gaza and Israel insisted on holding a security buffer between Egypt and occupied Gaza, the area has indeed been liberated. Thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of Gazans and Rafah residents from Gaza have streamed back and forth across the sandy stretch that Israel called ‘the Philadeplphi Corridor’ during the decades of occupation, since the IDF quit the area early this week. Israeli security concerns are that arms can easily be brought into Gaza from Sinai. But visits to the scene show that the vast majority of people are simply enjoying the sudden freedom of movement, and that family and friend reunifications combined with cheaper shopping in Egyptian Rafah is what is motivating the flow of people.

Nobody expects the peaceful but anarchic situation to continue much longer. Egypt very much wants to prove to itself, the Palestinians, Israel and the Americans that it is a responsible power, and that it intends to stick to the signed agreement with Israel that allowed Egypt to bring 750 crack Border Police troops into the area to provide security. The Palestinians also want to prove to themselves, Israel and the world that despite the initial scenes of burning and demolishing some of the synagogues Israel left behind, they, too, can meet their commitments – and protect their borders. Thus, a key aide to PA President Mahmoud Abbas was promising last night and this morning that with the Israelis gone from the Gaza Strip, the real security reforms – and disarming of the armed groups can begin in Gaza. And, said Rafik Husseini, the effort will begin immediately. The goal: to have completely disarmed all the militias by the January 2006 elections, starting with the ruing party Fateh’s own irregulars, the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. The plan is to ‘mainstream’ the irregulars by drafting them into a revamped PA armed forces.

Israeli hawks, of course, were arguing that the scenes between the two Rafahs proved disengagement was wrong and Israel should take action. The Egyptian ambassador to Israel and former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy both counseled patience to Israel Radio listeners this morning, predicting that the confluence of interests would soon lead to ‘law and order’ being restored on the Egyptian-Gaza border.

For Israel, it is a crucial issue – and not only because of ‘security’ issues. Three days since the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, Israel is eager to announce – during Prime Minister Sharon’s speech to the UN tomorrow – that the occupation of Gaza is over. But the Justice Ministry knows that until the border crossings out of Gaza are formalized with an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, the legalistic formalism of international law has Israel responsible for Gaza. And it won’t be able to have its cake and eat it too, by arguing that since the border with Egypt is open, the fact that Israel controls all the other exits and entries to Gaza is irrelevant. In fact, it is very relevant, already the focus of the latest dispute between Israel and the PA. Abbas has said that the goal now is to focus on the West Bank and East Jerusalem and in a speech this week delivered via PA TV instead of from the UN, he called on Israel to resume direct negotiations for a final solution to the conflict.

Sharon has no intention of engaging in any such negotiations – or at least that’s what he’s saying, along with things like there will be no more unilateral withdrawals and now Israel will concentrate on beefing up the major Jewish population centers in the West Bank, the so-called settlement blocs of Ariel east of Tel Aviv, Maale Adumim east of Jerusalem and Gush Etzion, south of Jerusalem. But two years ago he was saying that the utterly isolated Jewish settlement of Netzarim in Gaza was as important to Israel as Tel Aviv. Netzarim is now a pile of rubble.

Much depends on the Americans, who know that Sharon’s rhetoric tomorrow a the UN is going to be directed to two audiences – other than the delegates at the General Assembly – the Likud central committee and rank and file, and the Palestinians. Sharon’s expected star turn at UN this week is only the result of his actions as the evacuator of Gaza, not his words. But his words will be important for the emotionally volatile Likud central committee, where an odd combination of ideological purists, corrupt party pros, and bandwagon riders makes it increasingly difficult to predict if upon Sharon’s return to Israel early next week, he is essentially deposed as party leader.

Until this week, the Americans have been saying off the record – but for the press – that they don’t want any pressure on Sharon until the political situation in Israel is stabilized. But then Condoleezza Rice told The New York Times that she anticipates pressuring Israel and the PA to meet their commitments from the the Sharm el Sheikh summit (that was hosted by Egypt and which the Americans did not attend). There, Sharon and Abbas made mutual commitments for cooperation, settlement freezes, prisoner releases, an end to terrorism, lifting checkpoints, etc,– all the confidence building measures called for by the roadmap.

The Americans are not about to do anything overt to harm Sharon’s stature, nor will they do anything to undermine Abbas. Bush might make clear to Sharon during their session that Washington expects Jerusalem and Ramallah to start engaging in some form of regular dialogue. There has been talk since the disengagement went so smoothly in mid-August, of a post-UN meeting between Abbas and Sharon. But it is difficult to predict what they might discuss unless there is some form of imposition of law and order in Gaza. As long as Hamas men can blow up the border between Gaza’s Rafah and Egypt – and warn off Palestinian troops – Sharon will be able to rely on international sympathy for his distrust of Abbas’ abilities, if not intentions.

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