The historic mistake, Monday, September 12, 2005

At the Kissufim junction this morning, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz was meeting with military reporters who more or less had only one question: how will Israel respond to Palestinian terror attacks that the conventional wisdom says are coming sooner or later. Mofaz's answer was more or less 'that's for us to know and the Palestinians to find out,' warning, like IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz did yesterday, that any Israeli response to a Palestinian terror attack would not take into consideration who was responsible for the attack, only that the PA is responsible for preventing such attacks.

The threats to the Palestinians come after several weeks of coordination that even the hawkish Mofaz called 'good' this morning. The contradictions of a 'unilateral disengagement' meant to relieve Israel of its responsibility for the Gazans with the fact that as of now, Gaza is nearly 100 percent dependent on Israel for its basic commodities, from fuel to food to medicine, are evident to anyone who wants to look closely at the situation.

Vice Premier Shimon Peres admitted on Israel Radio this morning that the Israeli settlement of Gaza was an 'historic mistake' and that he is 'proud' that Israel 'found the strength to correct the mistake.'

As of 7:10 a.m. today, when the last Israeli soldier closed the Kissufim Junction gate, Peres is the top Israeli politician with authority on matters relating to Gaza. For the first time in the 38 years since the Israel Defense Forces occupied Gaza during the 1967 Six Day War, the Israeli defense minister is not the ultimate sovereign in the tiny, densely populated strip that was the Biblical 'Land of the Philistines.'

Peres is meant to use his authority – which extends precisely as far as Prime Minister Ariel Sharon allows it to go -- to help raise money from foreign countries and agencies to invest in developing the Strip. This morning, he was promising that Israel would make every effort to make sure that Gaza is not 'turned into a prison and soup kitchen.' But meanwhile, Gaza is precisely that. Half its population lives off international charity and Israel's claim that its occupation of Gaza has ended rings somewhat hollowly, since Israel still controls Gazan access to the world.

Sharon meanwhile is heading to New York and the UN this week to reap the political fruits of what is now almost universally acclaimed as his 'courageous' decision to leave Gaza, with international expectations for more moves. He and his people are convinced that they've done enough, for now at least, and that it is all up to the Palestinians now if there is going to be any progress on the roadmap. Perhaps. But despite Sharon's vision of unilateralism, nothing takes place in a vacuum when it comes to the tangle of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – and the narrative, meaning the spin of the story, is as important as the facts.

Thus, a Palestinian public opinion poll issued last night by Khalil Shkaki, the leading Palestinian pollster, shows that the vast majority of Palestinians attribute the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza to the armed struggle and almost as many Palestinians are in favor of keeping the cease-fire and engaging the Israelis in peace negotiations.

On the Israeli side, meanwhile, there is no leading politician from either Likud or Labor ready to call PA President Mahmoud Abbas a 'partner' for negotiations, even though a mere declaration by Sharon that Abbas is a partner would probably greatly strengthen the PLO chairman vis a vis the armed groups, whom the Palestinian public, says Shkaki's poll, wants to see disarmed.

Even the planned pro-peace rally being organized by the Left is in doubt because Peace Now, Meretz, Labor, People's Voice, and Geneva Accord can't agree on what the rally's message. Some want it to express support for Sharon, others want it to call for full-fledged peace talks, and others say it should call for more unilateral withdrawals.

The prevailing view in Israel nowadays is nothing significant will happen in the coming year, except the Palestinian elections in January 2006 and the Israeli elections that will take place at the latest in November 2006. But that view doesn't take into account that when nothing happens to change reality, all it takes is a teenager with a bomb to force a change.

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