Level headed among the frenzied, Friday, August 26, 2005

Shinui’s Tommy Lapid, as usual, forgets to put his brain in gear before he opens his mouth, proposing that the best thing Sharon could do right now is quit politics, retiring to his farm with his place in history firmly secured. Lapid knows why he wants Sharon out of politics – Sharon at the head of any party, whether the Likud or a list drawn up especially for the next elections, will decimate Lapid’s Shinui.

When he realized he had insulted Sharon – who is reportedly telling associates that he has no intentions of quitting nor any intention of forming anew party to avoid fighting off the Netanyahyu challenge – Lapid changed his tune and offered to join the government. Of course, Lapid had conditions – somewhat obscure demands that the government agree to some of the planks in the anti-religious party’s platform. Fat chance of that happening right now.

Meanwhile, Yahad-Meretz’s Yossi Beilin immediately offered to meet with he most Right-wing elements in the Knesset to come up with a plan to early elections. Beilin, long considered one of the most creative political minds in Israel didn’t consult with the MKs from his party, and they displayed a rare consensus among themselves, charging him with making decisions without taking them into consideration. But why should he, when they, presumably social democrats with a combination of unionist and high-tech values, have utterly failed to capitalize on winning new voters from among the new poor created by Netanyahu’s economic policies.

The far Right – the National Union and the National Religious Party, plus Likud ‘rebels’ who have lined up with either Uzi Landau or Binyamin Netanyahu, and the Yesha Council – is still meanwhile reeling from the utter failure of their anti-disengagement campaign. Only a few weeks ago they were promising hundreds of thousands of people would march on Gaza, would block highways throughout the country, and if need be, flood the prisons with protestors. None of it happened.

The rabbis who promised God would prevent the removal of Jews from any part of Eretz Yisrael are meanwhile scrambling to explain why God did not intervene (to test the faith of the faithful seems to be the current consensus). But even the Right is not homogenous. For all the bravado among the Likud rebels, they know that few of them stand a chance of winning a realistic slot in the next Knesset list, and that while inside the Likud Netanyahu is more popular than Sharon, with Netanyahu at their head, the Likud will be cut to half its size in any election, about the same size as Labor right now. Indeed, as usual over the last two decades, the far Right appears determined to bring down a Likud-run government because it is hnot ideologically pure enough to suit the true believers.

And Labor is no less pathetic looking, with five candidates seemingly looking for a party. The latest idea is that the five candidates, whose voter registration drive for the party ended with half the new members being disqualified because they were faked – will all line up behind Peres, the octogenarian who still sounds younger and more creative in outlook than just about any other politician in the Israeli arena.

And Peres, like Sharon, wonders what’s the hurry. After all, the world is going to give Israel some breathing space now, after Sharon did what few ever believed he would do: remove all the settlers from Gaza, and even some from northern Samaria. In that time, goes Peres’ thinking at least, the Palestinians will be going to their first legislative election since Arafat died – and for the first time, Hamas and possibly the Islamic Jihad will take part.

For the first time, there is as much – if not more – domestic Palestinian pressure for an end to the terror as there is international pressure, and the past month of Israeli-Palestinian security coordination for the disengagement proved that such cooperation can work.

Indeed, despite this week’s killing of five Palestinians by the IDF, a couple of Qassams launched from Gaza’s Beit Hanoun, the stabbing murder of a yeshiva student in the Old City, a Hezbollah rocket that hit a chicken coop in the northern border village of Margaliot, and the stabbing of an Israeli policeman this morning in Hebron, Israeli and Palestinian security officials continue to appear optimistic about maintaining the quiet. Hamas and Islamic Jihad spokesmen can spout the usual rhetoric about vengeance for the deaths of Palestinians – but the last thing Palestinian voters seem to want now is another round of violence.

Thus, on Sunday, the Israeli government will approve the deal with Egypt for 750 Egyptian police on the Philadelphi Corridor, with a Knesset vote on it slated for Wednesday. The Knesset vote could be close – Netanyahu might lead the rebels to vote against it, but meanwhile, even Lapid and Beilin, let alone Labor, have not completely eliminated their safety net for the government as long as the withdrawal is in motion.

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