Mixed Signals

Tuesday, May 24, 2005

Last night, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz met for the first time in a month with his Palestinian Authority counterpart, Interior Minister Nasser Yussuf, to discuss coordination. It was obvious that Mofaz agreed to the meeting because Israel wants to appear to be trying to coordinate the withdrawal with the Palestinians. But he came out of the meeting with Yussuf saying that the Palestinian plans for coordination are 'superficial and shallow,' while Yussuf is said to have called the meeting with Mofaz 'negative' because Mofaz refused to even consider handing over more Palestinian towns or release prisoners, as promised at the Sharm el Sheikh summit, three months ago.

Nonetheless, Mofaz and Yussuf agreed to form two committees; one at their level, which will met again next week, presumably over a more detailed plan, and a second at the field commander level, which presumably is supposed to work out the details of how coordination will work on the ground. Israel's basic demand of the PA is that it flood those parts of Gaza from which mortars have been fired into settlements, with police ready to use force if necessary to prevent any fire at the Israeli evacuation, now tentatively scheduled to begin on August 15. Israel also seems to want a formal handover of the areas evacuated to PA forces, to prevent Hamas or 'looting mobs dancing on the rooftops' of the buildings, as Binyamin Netanyahu and the rest of the Right warn.

Mofaz and Yussuf did agree that the two sides will meet this week – though it is not clear at what level – to discuss the issue of the wanted Palestinian gunmen and what has happened to their weapons. Israel has okayed a PA plan to disarm the gunmen voluntarily, drafting them into the PA's bureaucracy, but it keeps complaining that in Jericho and Tul Karm, where the plan is being tried out first, there's not been much progress. Sharon keeps complaining that Abbas considered the Palestinian gunmen as national heroes and is doing nothing to neutralize the Hamas (indeed, as far as Abbas is concerned, one of his accomplishments over the four months since he was elected is that Hamas has decided to get into electoral politics, and is running for the Palestinian Legislative Council).

Abbas is going into his meeting with Bush with a number of goals: to win a U.S. guarantee that the Gaza and northern West Bank withdrawals are not the end of a process, but signal the start of a renewed political process; he hopes to persuade Bush to find some way to bypass Congress for delivering aid to the Palestinians – Congress has slapped a rather humiliating set of conditions on the $200 million in aid promised by Bush when Abbas was elected, including earmarking $50 million of it for Israel to spend as it wants on border control passages between the West Bank and Israel; and more forthright U.S. disciplining of Israel for the continuing settlement expansion.

Last night, Rice tried to sound evenhanded when she told the AIPAC convention where Sharon appears later today, that Israel has to avoid taking steps that prejudice the outcome of any final status negotiations – code for settlement expansion – and that the Palestinians stick to the democratic process and stop the armed men. But it is hard to sound evenhanded at the annual convention of the Jewish lobby.

Meanwhile, Sharon keeps confusing the defense establishment. For months he has been saying that Israel cannot give up the Philadephi Corridor, a narrow strip of land Israel controls between Egyptian and Gazan Rafah. Much of the arms smuggling takes place in tunnels dug by the Palestinians under the 100-200 meter wide dirt road, and much of the anti-Israeli violence as been aimed at the soldiers posted in the heavily fortified outposts along the road. The IDF has prepared a variety of plans to keep the area, up to and including digging a water canal as a barrier. But suddenly, Sharon is said to be speaking openly about handing the corridor over to the Egyptians – if they commit to putting a halt to the smuggling.

The Egyptian deputy chief of intelligence was in Gaza yesterday trying to sew up the frayed 'Cairo agreement' under which the Palestinian factions agree to a 'lull' in the armed struggle against Israel, to give Abbas a chance to make gains through diplomatic means. But Hamas-Fateh quarreling over the results of the recent municipal elections in Rafah and Beit Lahiya prompted Hamas fire at settlements last week, and worse for the Palestinians, Hamas fire at PA police who tried to prevent the fire at the settlements.

Furthermore, the Hamas is very upset about the announcement from the Palestinian Elections Commission that it cannot be ready in time for the July 17 parliamentary elections, because the current parliament changed the Election Law, increasing the number of MPs from 88 to 123, and having two thirds elected by district and one third by national, proportional vote. Abbas keeps saying the elections can be held on time, but it is obvious to all that Fateh, in turmoil as reformists and old-timers clash, would prefer to wait until after the disengagement withdrawals for the elections, while Hamas, unified and seemingly uncorrupt, would like to go to the polls as soon as possible.

As if all these complications aren't enough, three months before the withdrawal from Gaza, there is sheer confusion about where the settlers will go, how much they will be compensated, what will happen to the houses they leave behind, and what it will all cost. And that raises doubts about whether the plan will even be executed. Of course, the mere raising of those doubts is part of the anti-disengagement forces' efforts to prevent the withdrawal. It is increasingly evident that there is something even larger at stake for Israel than the withdrawal – the ability of an elected government, and elected parliament to make a democratically promulgated decision and see it through.

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