The Putin mystery

Thursday, April 28, 2005

In short, despite self-confident posturing by various commentators, each with their claims to behind the scenes information explaining what he is doing here, Putin remains as mysterious as ever. As of noon, he wasn’t doing anything that really might charm Israelis – though he did pay a nighttime visit to the Western Wall, on his way from the Holy Sepulcher to the onion-turreted church in the valley across from the eastern walls of the Temple Mount. Jerusalemites, in any case, were cursing him because with extra-tight security for his official convoy, traffic patterns in the city were turned upside down, making it difficult to cross the town – and sometimes even the street.

He bluntly said at the press conference with President Moshe Katsav that he was selling anti-aircraft missiles to Syria to prevent Israeli air force planes from buzzing the Syrian president’s palaces. He said he is against Iran getting the bomb, but did not indicate he intends to bring Russia into any international diplomatic coalition that would force the issue at the UN Security Council. He said he had signed agreements with Iran that the Russian hardware and know-how for their civilian nuclear program would not be used for untoward purposes – but he agreed that the real test would be the behavior of the Iranian leadership. Katsav said that represents some progress in the Russian position on Moscow’s help to Iran. Nobody at the press conference asked about a Haaretz report this morning that Israel has decided to object to the Russians providing the Palestinian Authority with armored troop carriers

Maybe after Prime Minister Ariel Sharon gets a transcript of PA President Mahmoud Abbas speech yesterday to the new PA security commanders, the Israelis will change their mind. According to reports this morning – pretty much ignored by the self-centered Israeli press, which focused on extreme Rightist MK Arye Eldad’s call for a “civil rebellion” – Abbas said, ‘Whoever violates this general consensus... must be hit by an iron fist … Whoever wants to sabotage [the truce] with rocket fire or shooting must be stopped by us even if that requires using force.’

Maybe. Meanwhile, the ceasefire is holding, more or less, depending on one’s perspective. True, a Qassam landed near yesterday’s march by about 25,000-35,000 anti-disengagement settler supporters through Gush Katif, causing no casualties (except a soldier on guard duty who was scratched). The demonstrators were bused in (at taxpayer expense, since it was the Yesha Council that funded the demonstration), but despite a massive ad campaign, and promises of a 100,000 demonstrators in a ‘dress rehearsal’ for the real protest when the evacuation begins, police said there were barely 35,000 in attendance – and the reports from the scene emphasized that it was 99 percent national-religious. And it is also true that two teenagers were busted yesterday as they crossed through an IDF checkpoint the 11th time in one day, carrying some homemade weapons from Jenin to Nablus, apparently under orders from some Nablus cell commanders.

But last night, state-run Channel One TV interviewed two Tul Karm men introduced as former local commanders of the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade who were drafted into the PA security services and are committed to ‘the lull, the hudna, the ceasefire, whatever you call it,’ as one of them said. ‘We handed in our weapons.’ he explained to the reporter. The report essentially disproved Israeli claims that the PA is not doing in Tul Karm and Jericho what it promised to do – disarm the wanted men in the cities where it takes over security control from the Israelis.

And that’s just what Abbas wants as he prepares for his meeting next month with President George W. Bush, who despite anything Putin might try, remains the only foreigner that the Israelis and Palestinians really care about. So, Putin will have lunch with Sharon this afternoon, and then go to Yad Vashem, and tomorrow he will be in Ramallah where no doubt he will mention again his idea for an international conference in Moscow this fall and depending on what he hears from Sharon about the armored carriers will or won’t announce their delivery. And there are insistent reports about four-sided talks, direct and indirect, between the PA, Egypt,the U.S. and Israel about what will happen to the Philadelphi corridor, the narrow Israeli-controled strip between Gaza and Egypt in southern Gaza. Israel would like to get out of that corridor as part of the withdrawal, but is not happy about the conditions Egypt is posing before it assumes security control of the area. Still, there are 83 days to the official disengagement date in late July (no postponement has been decided on yet), and a deal is probable.

But it’s Bush, not Putin, who matters nowadays, and everything Sharon and Abbas – and perhaps even Putin – are doing nowadays are geared to make an impression on the American president.

© Today's Situation From Ariga, http://www.ariga.com by Robert Rosenberg; Feel free to pass this page on, including this line: Subscribe or unsubscribe at http://www.ariga.com/signup.shtml >>>>>>>>>>RSS Feed

Feed Shark

Today's Situation || Yesterday's Situation