Sharon’s outlook

Thursday, April 21, 2005

The holiday eve interviews with the prime minister – the only time he gives interviews or even meets with the press -- are being written up for tomorrow’s Pesach even editions, but some of the message is already coming through in previews and in the two interviews he gave to Israel Radio and Army Radio. Sharon has always been a master at sticking to the message, often answering a question by saying, ‘that’s not the question, the question is …’ and then going on to state the message he wants to deliver.

The message this Pesach eve, his fifth as prime minister, according to the two radio interviews: he believes he will be reelected (despite the obvious antagonism to him inside his own party and his own obvious contempt for the party’s officials).

He is not deterred by the incitement against him – and even if the decision is made to postpone the withdrawal from the religious settlements for three weeks because of Tisha B’Av, there will be no further delays.

Israel cannot be responsible for 3.5 million Palestinians – one of the clearest statements he has made since his famous ‘the occupation is bad for Israel’ statement made in 2003 – about how ‘things you see from here (the PM’s office) are not what you see from there.’

‘There is no truth’ to reports of a planned second disengagement – a ‘he doth protest too much’ remark if ever there was one, considering that he has rerouted the security fence to encompass the 80 percent of the settlers who live in 7-8 percent of the West Bank, on the Green Line and the rest will have to move eventually.

Indeed, Sharon sounded more conciliatory toward PA President Mahmoud Abbas than he has in quite some time. He said ‘I believe Abbas wants to reach a peace agreement,’ which is true – the question is whether Sharon wants to, or prefers trying his long-term interim agreement approach, which he has touted for years.

On other issues, he said that Israel cannot take the lead in the campaign against the Iranian bomb, and that while the world is ‘growing used to the idea of an Iranian bomb’ the Americans and the international community will have to do something about it – the UN Security Council seems to be his solution, for sanctions. He said that international diplomatic pressure on Iran could work – and even help bring about regime change there.

On the Russian anti-aircraft missile sale to Syria, he said Israel cannot intervene, lest it open the way for others to intervene in Israeli arms sales. Vladimir Putin, who is making an historic visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories next week, made clear last night to Israel TV why he is selling the missiles to Syria – to prevent Israeli air force planes from humiliating Syrian President Bashar Assad by buzzing his presidential palace every time Israeli wants to send a message to Assad to stop supporting terror. The SA-18 missiles will make it difficult for low-flying Israeli planes on incursions into Syria. The question is whether Damascus will knowingly or not let some of those missiles slip into Hezbollah hands, making it difficult for Israeli planes to fly over Lebanon.

No doubt some of the newspapers are saving some better stuff from the interviews for their editions tomorrow. Meanwhile, the first steps toward coordination of the withdrawal are taking place today: Vice Premier Shimon Peres is due to meet with PA Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei’ today, presumably to soften Qurei’s opposition to coordination; Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz is supposed to meet with Mohammad Dahlan, the Gaza strongman who was made PA Minister of Civilian Affairs by Abbas and is a main Palestinian proponent for coordination; and Sharon’s chief negotiator, the lawyer who has been with him since he sued TIME magazine 20 years ago, Dov Weissglas, is due to meet with longtime PA negotiator Saeb Erekat today.

This morning’s Haaretz carries a report quoting unnamed ‘senior PA sources’ as saying that the PA is so much better prepared than Israel for the disengagement. Teams of experts in a range of issues, from international affairs to urban development have been at work for several weeks preparing working recommendations for the PA political level in their negotiations with Israel for the withdrawal and post-withdrawal era. Among those recommended positions: the PA should conduct a comprehensive survey of all the buildings and infrastructure Israel is planning to leave behind, and whatever is not useful to the Palestinian economy or development, should be removed by Israel; the PA must approve any third party deals Israel might make with agencies such as the World Bank; and no Palestinian businessman will be allowed to deal independently to purchase from with Israeli businessmen who possess facilities such as cellular phone antennas or other such infrastructure. Abbas told the Israeli press this week that the Palestinians don’t need the single-story ‘villas’ that comprised the settlement housing. The estimated NIS 150 million in demolition, trucking and environmental costs for removing the houses and bringing the rubble back into Israel therefore might end up on the overall bill for the withdrawal – now estimated to be close to NIS 10 billion.

Yesterday, by the way, an IDF convoy of trucks drove out of Gaza with 20 trailers of office equipment and other administrative supplies from one of its bases in southern Gaza, the first tangible step toward the withdrawal seen on the ground so far.

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