A step in the right direction

Monday, December 06, 2004

he sudden release of Azzam Azzam, convicted as an Israeli spy by an Egyptian court 8 years ago – despite consistent and persistent Israeli appeals to President Mubarak that the Druze textiles salesman from the Galilee was not a spy – appears to spark a newfound belief in the Israeli press at least, that peace, if not right around the corner, might after all indeed still be possible.

The consensus is that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak – for calculated reasons, not a sudden attack of sentimentality –has crossed a Rubicon of sorts, and has decided to believe that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is really going to evacuate the soldiers and settlers out of Gaza. And Sharon, says this new consensus (between the lines if not explicitly) has fallen in love with the role of peacemaker. As Sharon said recently, it is up to his generation (meaning him and Shimon Peres, the last two politicians on the scene who were adults in the pre-state days) to do what they can to once and for all solve the conflict. He may also have been referring to Mubarak, the last of the Arab leaders who, like Sharon, actually experienced war as a general.

Sure, there are nuances in the Israeli interpretation of the Egyptian decision to free Azzam halfway through his 15-year sentence. Some do regard it as a major turning point, and see if not absolutely clear sailing ahead, at least a clarification of the role Egypt will play as the umbrella for an emerging Israeli-Palestinian dialogue that is supposed to start in earnest right after the January 9th presidential elections in the PA. More significant, of course, in the long run will be the May elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council, when it will be possible to at least try to accurately map the Palestinian political spectrum.

Others, just short of the hard line Right where no Arab move is trusted or believed, are much less sanguine and warn that the obstacles ahead, not least Sharon’s intentions in the West Bank, Palestinian society’s ability to once and for all put an end to the culture of armed resistance above all else, and both sides’ ability to accept the other’s narrative, if not agree with it.

There is clearly something happening. The warming ties with Egypt are significant, and after nearly 30 years that they’ve known each other and regarded each other warily, there does seem to be some chemistry developing between Sharon and Mubarak, two ex-generals in their 70s. And for all the talk about how states make decisions based on interests, not sentiments, a little bit of trust (and verify, as Ronald Reagan once said about Mikhail Goirbachev) between leaders can go a long way.

The expectations now are for a series of steps. Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said bluntly today that Israel and Egypt are now developing strategic ties that will include Egyptian training of Palestinians for both Gaza and the West Bank. Meanwhile, there are open expectations for the return of the Egyptian ambassador to Tel Aviv after the January 9th elections (which would also pave the way for the Jordanian ambassador to be returned. Both were pulled out by their respective governments after the intifada broke out and was not quickly quelled).

gypt has also reportedly won an Israeli promise for prisoner releases (a major item on the Palestinian agenda – the PA has asked Israel to let the estimated 7,000 security prisoners to vote in the upcoming PA elections). Marwan Barghouti (who is still under enormous pressure to drop his candidacy for the presidential election and instead focus on his campaign for an internal vote in Fateh, in August) won’t be on the list of those freed in the upcoming release – if it happens. But if Sharon does deliver on that promise, which has not been formally confirmed on the Israeli side, an historic Mubarak trip to Israel for a summit with Sharon could be in the offing.

Such a move would go down well in Washington, where this weekend they knew that far more important than the release of Azzam Azzam was the coincidental signing of the Israel-Egypt free trade agreement with the U.S., similar to the one Israel has with Jordan. And there are expectations that once the Egyptian and Jordanian ambassadors are back in Israel, some more Arab states – Morocco, Tunisia, and possibly Qatar and Dubai – will come out of the closet and open similar embassies in Israel.

And meanwhile, on another front no less significant, PLO Chairman Abbas and PA Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei’ were making an historic visit to Damascus today, for meetings with Syrian President Bashar Assad, whose father hated Yasser Arafat and fostered the opposition to the late Palestinian leader. Assad Jr. also wants to take part in the peace festivities and so far ahs been held off at arms reach by Israel, which says Assad has to take tangible steps proving he is turning his back on the rejectionists, whom Israel says run terror operations from their Damascus offices and train operatives in Syrian-based camps.

That kind of Assad change might be coming sooner than hitherto expected. Abbas indicated this morning in some Israeli press reports that he wants to play a little hardball with the Hamas leadership in Damascus. Yes, he will meet with Khaled Mashal. But no, discussions about the ceasefire hudna that Egypt and Abbas are working hard to forge through talks will be conducted with the Palestinians in the territories and not with people overseas. It means that he wants Mashal and his people in Damascus to stop interfering in the efforts to calm things down in the territories. The Abbas-Assad meeting is as important as the warming of relations between Mubarak and Sharon. Abbas is clearly in the Western-American camp, something Arafat was never able to do) and he could become a major influence on Assad, who has been signaling in the last few months that he, too, would like to join the Western-American camp (or at least get rid of its pressure on him by announcing peaceful intentions toward Israel). Sharon has been quoted as saying privately that he’ll deal with Syria in 2006, after the disengagement is completed next September.

Maybe, In any case, anyone looking for evidence that Israelis are feeling hopeful need only take a look at the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. It has been on a rise since Arafat’s death and shows no signs of stopping. Yesterday, it reached the level it was at when the intifada broke out in October 2000 – and there was no profit taking today, as buyers outnumbered sellers, throughout the morning at least.

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