Sharon's new start

Thursday, December 02, 2004

It’s a battle with many obstacles. First he has to persuade the Likud Central Committee, where the name Shimon Peres is a curse word and hatred for Labor is a byword for popularity, that the only alternative is elections. Trouble is, while the elected politicians fear elections, the Likud central committee members feel most powerful when elections are in the air – and under the current nomination system in the party, can only gain from an election campaign. The rebels, meaning the opponents of disengagement, have already made clear they will fight with all their might against bringing in Labor. And they’ve already organized one anti-Labor decision in the central committee this year, so they have a running head start on the prime minister – and they may find their dream leader at their head this time. Binyamin Netanyahu is still very opposed to bringing in Labor (and Shas), because it will mean a redrafting of the budget prepared at is finance ministry, and could mean an end to several key reforms he had planned for 2005.

But on the assumption that Sharon can win approval for a new coalition with Labor and UTJ and the promise that he will do what he can to bring in Shas, there is a problem on Labor’s side. Ehud Barak, trying to make a comeback in the Labor Party, is very much against joining the government and he has at least eight of the 21 Labor MKs behind him, though not all can be called Barak loyalists. Barak, who had what appeared to be an out of control, Howard Dean-like ‘Scream moment’ at a session of the party’s central committee this week, will fight joining the government with as much energy as the rebels in the Likud. He does not have as much support in the Labor central committee as the rebels have in the Likud’s, but he can become a disruptive force. He and his associates are arguing they should remain outside the government, and support disengagement with a safety net for the Sharon government. Trouble is, right now the Sharon government consists of the 40 MKs in the Likud faction, and nearly half of them are ‘rebels.’

ssuming that Labor can overcome the Barak problem, both Sharon and Peres will face a major problem: how to divide up the portfolios. Sharon, under investigation with his son MK Omri Sharon by the police for suspicions of illegal campaign financing and money laundering due to foreign donations to his campaign chests and his personal bank accounts, moved quickly this morning and made Absorption Minister Tzipi Livne, one of his favorites, the acting justice minister. Presuanbly, Sharon won’t be able to give Peres one of the three major portfolios – Finance, Foreign Ministry, or Defense – but their deal is not so much for the portfolio as it is for the power that Peres will have in a new government. He is not joining the government to watch from the sidelines as Silvan Shalom meets with PLO Chairman Mahmoud Abbas or Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei’. Sharon could make him ‘Minister for the Disengagement’ and give Peres, a former prime minister and defense minister, the job of coordinating the disengagement with the Palestinian leadership elected on January 9th. Sharon is planning a reshuffle not only of portfolios for the Labor Party but also inside the Likud. For example, he could hand over the powerful Interior Ministry to either Tzachi Hanegbi, the newly elected chairman of the party’s central committee, or to Agriculture Minister Yisrael Katz, newly elected as chairman of the Likud secretariat, which runs the party’s machinery, including its finances. It could be a major step toward reducing Katz’s opposition to disengagement.

One reason Labor is going to be more palatable to the Likud central committee is that Sharon will be bringing in UTJ, a traditional Likud ally and will promise to bring in Shas – but only if Shas changes its tune on disengagement. Rabbi Ovadia Yosef is against disengagement because it is unilateral. A key advisor to him, former MK David Glass, said this morning on Israel Radio that the developments on the Palestinian side could mean that disengagement will be coordinated with the Palestinians.

Sharon said as much this morning in the traditional breakfast meeting between the prime minister and the editors of the national newspapers – on condition, of course, that the ‘new leadership elected by the Palestinians indeed does take steps to meet the conditions of the roadmap, in other words, putting an end to terror.’ Sharon did add that he knows that is a long-term process, but that he has already noted there has been a decline in the incitement in the Palestinian media, irrespective of ‘what was whispered or not in the ear of the director of the Palestinian Broadcasting Authority,’ who had denied he was told by PA leaders to tone down the anti-Israeli and anti-Semitic content in his programming.

On the issue of a possible hudna cease-fire on the Palestinian side, Sharon said Israel would not be a partner to any deal with terror organizations and would reserve the right to strike at active terrorists. ‘But of course, if there is quiet, we are interested in quiet.’ He said ‘I have made clear to everyone – the American president, the Europeans, president Putin – Israel will not make any concessions or compromises on the issue of terror or security of the people of Israel and the state of Israel. We hope the new leadership will act in this sphere so it becomes possible to make progress.’ And he reiterated that Israel is ready for ‘very painful concessions’ if the Palestinians are forthcoming in putting an end to attacks on Israelis. He said that already, there are daily contacts with the Palestinians, but full-scale discussions will only begin after the Jan 9th elections. ‘Those discussions will be about security, whom to hand over the territory to, if, of course, there is a Palestinian government that has taken on the task of fulfilling its obligations according to the roadmap … this move, the disengagement is not the roadmap, it is meant to enable the roadmap.’ Insisting that the disengagement will take place as planned, according to the schedule already determined – but if there are attacks on the evacuation, we will have to respond drastically, we will not allow harm down to the people who are being evacuated.’

As for Syria, Sharon said that ‘if Assad is serious’ he’ll find Israel is ready to listen. Syria is under American pressure and it is very interested in reducing those pressures. How can it do so, what would be better than it being seen sitting down to negotiate with Israel. I don’t think it is our job to help Syria reduce the pressure from America, because the American pressure serves our interests, so I think that in this matter we have no interest in freeing the Syrians of their difficulties. The terror headquarters are in Damascus, orders are sent from Damascus to the terror groups, training bases are in Syria, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are in occupied Lebanon, and the Syrian army is in Lebanon -- they say they were invited but in effect it is an occupation. The Syrians have no problem getting rid of the terror headquarters or the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, getting rid of the 13,000 rockets supplied by Iran and some by Syria. Some reach far into Israel. Syria has no problem letting th Lebanese army deploy on the border with Israel and push Hezbollah back and they have no problem ending the aid to the Palestinian terror groups, including per terror action payments. If they take any step, even the smallest, then definitely, I think, under certain circumstances, I would be ready to meet Assad, and I want to remind you that when Sadat came it was after much preparation and it was no accident that he showed up here.’ He also pointed out that the Egyptian foreign minister and intelligence minister did not raise the Syrian issue when he met with them yesterday. ‘I think maybe it was because the day before they were burnt by the Syrians, when the Syrians denied what the Egyptians had said, that the Syrians were ready to resume talks without preconditions and the Syrians denied it. The Egyptians learned their lesson.’

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