Powell’s departure

Tuesday, November 16, 2004

Shalom last night met with outgoing Secretary of State Colin Powell, who is reportedly going ahead with his plan to visit Ramallah and Jerusalem next week, his first visit to the region since the Aqaba summit. Presumably, Powell made clear to Shalom that Israeli talk of denying Palestinians in Jerusalem the right to vote in the PA will not go down very well with President George W. Bush, who seems to have suddenly realized that the first Arab democracy might very well be Palestine, not Iraq.

Shalom, in any case, was saying on Saturday night and Sunday morning that East Jerusalemites would not be allowed to vote, but this morning was ignoring that message, changing it to they would be allowed to vote – if they vote outside the city. Presumably that will also change by the time the January 9th vote comes around. In 1996, East Jerusalemites voted for the Palestinian Legislative Council and for PA president, at polling stations put up at the local (Israeli) post office branches in East Jerusalem.

A major concern that is emerging in Israel about the Palestinians is the mounting influence of Iran, through Tehran’s Lebanese proxy the Hezbollah, on the situation. There are reports this morning of worry in the security services that the Iranians are taking aim at Mahmoud Abbas and will try to assassinate him. There are many reports from over the past several months about growing Hezbollah influence over the Fateh’s street gangs as well as inroads to the Hamas. Yesterday, however, Hezbollah was adamant that it had nothing to do with two Katyusha rockets that flew into Israel from southern Lebanon. Unnamed Israeli officials in the press were promising retaliation for the Katyushas, which caused no damage or injuries. Deputy Defense Minister Zeev Boim laid the responsibility for the Katyusha fire at the feet of the Lebanese government, saying that the Beirut regime is a puppet of the Syrian government. Does that mean that the Israelis will strike militarily at Syria? Not necessarily. Boim took note of American-Franco diplomatic efforts to squeeze Syria out of Lebanon, and under pressure from an Israel Radio interviewer, Boim said Israel would have to carefully examine its choices for retaliation, as he insisted that it is up to Beirut ‘to make order in its Wild South.’ In any case, no massive military move is likely, of course, and even a surgical response would have to be proportional in a way that sends a message, without causing any real harm.

Meanwhile, the routine of the last year seemed to resume in the territories after the hiatus created by the death of Yasser Arafat. In Nablus, four men were arrested by IDF troops, while in Gaza, two mortars were fired at an army outpost, without causing damage or injuries.

Also in Gaza, Abu Mazin – Mahmoud Abbas – was continuing his meetings with Palestinian faction leaders, trying to draw the Hamas and Islamic Jihad into a pan-Palestinian ceasefire. A Cairo session is also planned. The emerging view now is that Abbas, who has yet to formally announce his candidacy for PA president, will indeed run as Fateh’s candidate and will wait until after the elections grant him legitimacy, to take action against the armed factions that refuse to put away their weapons.