Arafat’s legacy: ‘the two Abus’

Thursday, November 11, 2004

ll morning, the radio chatter shows tried to find Jewish Israelis who would say simply that they send their condolences to the Palestinian people. None were to be found. Arafat was long ago was turned into the ultimate ‘not since Hitler’ icon for Israelis to demonize and for the Right to justify being glad he was gone. Even when he was briefly popular after making peace with Rabin, few Israelis ever used his nickname, Abu Amar, but they all refer to Mahmoud Abbas as Abu Mazin and Ahmed Qurei’ is Abu Ala. The are the two Abus who negotiated the Oslo agreements.

The Americans are more polite than Israelis. They refer to the Abus as ‘the suits.’ So, while th emotional talk as about Biblical injunctions from Proverbs about cheering when the evil fall but not finding happiness when enemies are toppled. But while everyone could talk about his legacy of terror, and a few even mentioned that he was, after all, a partner to Rabin in the ‘peace of the brave,’ his real testament was how much hope his death spawned.

Even Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, in his first public comment on the subject since Arafat flew out of the Muqata, expressed hope. Of course, Sharon did not name the irrelevant Arafat’s death as the reason for the chance for an historical change in the Middle East. He urged the new/old leadership to move quickly against terror, because, said Sharon that would be the first sign of being serious about wanting to reach peace.

The orders emanating from Sharon’s office, through the Defense Ministry to the army, is that this is a sensitive time; Israeli forces are being beefed up – but kept as much out of sight as possible. Reduced friction, but further control over Palestinian movement through the territories is the byword, with the message being that everyone will get a chance during the 40 days of mourning to reach his tomb in the Muqata.

he first two Palestinian prime ministers are not clowning ex-gunmen or religious fanatics. They are modern Arab politicians, and have divided up all Arafat’s powers, with the full approval of all the institutions, from the PLO, through Fatah and the Palestinian Authority. So far, everything is according to the law. PLC Speaker Rouhi Fattuh was sworn in as interim Chairman of the Palestinian Authority. Elections are supposed to be held in 60 days – and the plan is for the Hamas to take part as a party.

Until then, the only people with guns allowed in public in Palestinian areas are under Qurei’s command. They will not shoot at anyone who does not shoot at them first. They probably will shoot back at anyone who does shoot at them. And they far outnumber the number of gunmen in all the armed factions. No mutinies have yet been recorded. Even Moussa Arafat, the dead chairman’s cousin, has not spoken up to protest.

So, after Suha Arafat’s outburst (which wagging tongues are saying was dictated by Pierre Razik, the former intelligence chief for the Phalange in the days when Israel and the Lebanese Christians were pals), Farouk Kaddummi’s bleating from the comforts of Tunis, and about 50 students from Bir Zeit marching toward the Muqata shouting ‘Dahlan is corrupt’ – the Palestinian Authority is already implementing the plan that the Americans liked, Israel doubted, and Arafat foiled, because it would have meant an end to armed struggle.

Nobody now expects the new leadership to give up the basic demand for implementation of more or less the Clinton/Geneva, etc. plan, 95% or so of the West Bank (with a land exchange in the Gaza area), East Jerusalem as the capital and a fair deal for refugees.

But there are expectations from Jerusalem to Washington that the Palestinians finally have a serious leadership that wants to end the armed intifada. If there are more phone calls going on than the one Qurei’ made to Sharon, when the prime ministers agreed on how Arafat would leave the country and be allowed to return if he recovered, the two premiers are playing it close to their chests.

Not that Qurei’s job is to negotiate with Sharon. Qurei’s job is to co-opt the irregular gunmen into the regular security forces, which the institutions have decided will be transformed into a three-force apparatus, not the 12+ that Arafat commanded one against the other. It’s Abbas, as head of the PLO who has the real authority to cut a deal with Sharon. But first Abbas has to run as the Fateh candidate and win a landslide – not as big as Arafat’s in 1996, of course – but an election that proves the Hamas and Islamic Jihad together will only muster about 20 percent of the vote. In short, Abbas’ job is to convince Bush and the West to convince Sharon that the Palestinians are well on their way to becoming the first Arab democracy and that Israel has to help those elections take place.

By the way, Israel rearrested nuclear whistleblower Mordechai Vanunu today, for allegedly spreading secrets in interviews to the foreign press. Vanunu spent 19 years in jail for telling the London Sunday Times about Israel’s nuclear weapons manufacturing in the Dimona reactor and was released in April this year.