Waiting for definitive results from the U.S. -- and from France

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

he conventional wisdom in Israeli political circles is that a second term Republican president and a first term Democratic president in the U.S. will both take a 'tough love' approach to Israel, meaning put some demands for progress in the peace process on the table. Ambassador Dan Kurtzer pretty much hinted as much this morning, telling Israel Radio that whoever is victorious in America will want to see progress on the disengagement plan, which will have historic implications for the Middle East, and that while there is no pressure on Israel, there are 'issues on our mind' and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon knows about them and has made commitments to deal with them.' Those issues are well-known –illegal outposts, construction in the settlements, easing humanitarian conditions for Palestinians.

So while waiting for the results of the American elections, there were other things Israelis were waiting for today, starting with the promised diagnosis/prognosis for Yasser Arafat, who even if he does not have leukemia most certainly has some kind of hematological problem, possibly the result of a viral infection in his digestive system that some say goes back at least two years. French doctors have meanwhile allowed Palestinian spokesmen to say only that leukemia has been ruled out. Observers noted that Arafat's brother Fathi was admitted to a Cairo hospital for treatment of a cancer reportedly in his digestive system, while his sister passed away from a similar cancer last year.

In any case, Arafat reportedly has promised a quick return to the PA, in a phone call with Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei'. There are also reports that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is considering a trip to Paris to see Arafat first hand. In the territories, meanwhile, Qurei' and Mahmoud Abbas, the secretary general of the PLO, making him Number 2 after Arafat, were quietly consolidating their powers – but not taking action that might be interpreted as a U-turn in policies, like arresting cells that prepare suicide bombers. At least so say the Israeli commentators, who remain convinced that even if Arafat is not dying, his era as the be-all, end-all leader is over. And there is growing awareness that would mean enormous international and possibly domestic pressure on Israel to engage the Palestinian political leadership directly.

sraelis were also waiting for the results of a meeting of the Likud 'rebels' on how they would vote tonight in the Knesset on the first reading of the budget bill. Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, reportedly with the flu at home, was lobbying mostly religious parties to back his budget bill. They are demanding as much as half a billion shekels for their pet projects to support the budget. Netanyahu has meanwhile not resolved the outstanding issue between him and Sharon – Netanyahu's threat to resign next Tuesday along with the National Religious Party if the premier does not approve a national referendum on the disengagement plan. As of noon today, the government does not have a majority for the budget, and Sharon may have no choice but to ask for a postponement of the budget vote.

That plan is also due for another vote this evening, this time on the specifics of the law concerning the evacuation and the compensation for settlers who will be evacuated – and punishments for those who obstruct the evacuation (as opposed to protesting the move itself). The rhetoric against the disengagement continues to heat up, with full-page ads from the Yesha Council in all the papers, calling Sharon a dictator, selectively quoting from the bill he is presenting tonight to show that the evacuation-compensation law includes arresting minors, nationalizing personal property, and jail terms for those who protest the evacuation – all exaggerations and distortions of the actual texts of the bill. Sharon can count on more or less the same coalition that voted in favor of his disengagement policy last week – half of Likud, all of Shinui, Labor, Yahad, at least two Arabs and a few rogue other MKs from the opposition.

Netanyahu's position has raised hopes on the Right that he will indeed quit and lead the opposition to the disengagement plan. Meanwhile, his political ally, Avigdor Lieberman, has announced a new political plan: First he leaked that he has a new plan for resolving the conflict – redrawing the boundaries between Israel and the state of Palestine, with a border drawn to place two major Israeli-Arab towns inside Palestine, as Jews move out of the settlements. That way, he says, there will be 'two homogeneous states.'

The plan was immediately rejected by the Left and some of the Center. But it seems to be part of a broader plan to break up the Right into three separate parties: Religious-Nationalist, Secular-Nationalist, and Russian- Right, seemingly operating with separate platforms, but actually coordinated behind the scenes. The theory is that the polls show more support for the National Union's separate entities (Moledet, the transferist party, Yisrael Beitenu, the Russian party, and Tekuma, the settler movement party) then when they are together as a bloc. Lieberman is hoping to bring Likud rebels into the new constellation and with Netanyahu leading the pack, believes he can redraw not only the boundaries of Israel and Palestine, but the lines of Israeli politics.

Netanyahu, in any case, is not speaking publicly about his plans, except to see the budget passed. The conventional wisdom is that he has to find a 'ladder' to climb down from the untenable position his threat to resign has created for him, politically. He could use Arafat's illness as an excuse, arguing it changes the parameters of the unilateral disengagement plan (even though Sharon so far says it won't make any difference to him, until the PA's collective leadership starts taking action against terrorism. He could also use the fact that unless Sharon gives the nod, there is no majority in the Knesset for a referendum – that's the excuse Netanyahu's ally, Limor Livnat, used in a bald-faced retreat from her previously 'principled' threat to quit. And of course, there's the economy, which has been faltering in the past few months, even though Netanyahu continues to claim that it is doing better than expected in. He could say that for the sake of the economy, he decided to stay on the job. In any case, he can't expect any Sharon help with whatever ladder Netanyahu chooses.