Optimists, pessimists, realists, fantasists

Friday, October 29, 2004

rafat was flying onboard a French flying hospital from Amman to Paris this morning, and Israelis, enjoying the first rain in eight months, were speculating what would happen next, operating on the assumption that an era has passed, divided between optimism and pessimism while trying to avoid making far-reaching predictions while aware of the nearly meta-historical moment at hand. There is no doubt that if indeed Arafat is now in his final days, it will be the most significant passing of an Arab ruler in the Middle East since Gamal Nasser died and Anwar Sadat took command in Egypt.

It’s not merely the departure of Arafat, who even if he manages to recover from whatever disease he has is not going to be the man who routinely worked 18 hours a day, maintaining his rule over a myriad of Palestinian institutions with a remarkable ability to divide and unite his supporters, that contributes to this historic moment.

There’s the uncertainty of what is happening in the ruling Likud party in Israel, Sharon’s determination to go ahead with the disengagement from Gaza, and the uncertainty of the outcome of the American elections. Netanyahu was already trying to use Arafat’s condition as a ladder to climb down from his ultimatum to Sharon, with sources close to Netanyahu promoting the idea that with Arafat out of the way, Israel will be able to reframe the disengagement plan so that it involves some form of agreement with the Palestinians, rather than be a unilateral step.

The Israelis, Americans, Europeans and perhaps the Palestinians themselves are divided between optimists and pessimists. The optimists now hope that the confluence of all the elements – Sharon’s conversion from settlement movement leader to dismantler of settlements in Gaza and the northern West Bank, Netanyahu’s failed putsch against Sharon, a White House either reinvigorated by Bush’s reelection or a with a new Middle East policy instituted by John Kerry, and the emergence of a collective Palestinian leadership made up of PA Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei’, former premier Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian National Council Chairman Salim Zaanun, and Palestinian Legislative Council Speaker Rawhi Fattouh – will add up to an historic opportunity to resume the effort to reach an agreement between the sides.

bbas is now slated to chair the PLO executive and Fateh central committee meetings –in two separate sessions tomorrow. Considering he barely spoke to Arafat in the past year, but in the last 72 hours was at his bedside, Abbas, the former premier who quit because Arafat refused to allow Abbas to make any of the reforms he promised George W. Bush he would make, and did not allow Abbas to use the PA security forces to rein in armed gangs, is not merely acceptable to the West. He was the great hope for the West last year, at the Aqaba summit. Abbas at the helm of a collective leadership seems the most hopeful possibility of all – at least as far as the Israelis, Americans and Europeans are concerned. Helping out is the fact that both Mohammed Dahlan, the strongman of Gaza, and his West Bank rival, Jibril Rajoub, Arafat’s National Security Advisor, are also part of the newly emerging collective leadership. Dahlan and to a lesser extent Rajoub are if not trusted by the Israelis, at least respected by them.

And it’s an optimistic scenario for the Palestinians, at least those fed up with the humiliation of being under Israeli soldiers’ thumbs (or trigger fingers) and at the mercy of armed gangs whose recruits are drawn from the criminal underworld was much as from the more rarefied circles of political cadres or, in the case of Hamas gangs, the ethers of spiritual (or suicidal) Islam. Judging from the fact that three-quarters of the voting age Palestinians have registered to vote in upcoming municipal elections, the Palestinians are ripe for an election and with Arafat out of the way, the Israelis will have no excuse to prevent it.

But that’s the optimistic view. The pessimistic view is that the warlords and gangleaders are too ensconced in their power, too self-centered and self-important to simply roll over and disarm. The pessimistic view is that despite a Hamas statement this morning that it will not use Arafat’s condition for political purposes, the Islamic fundamentalist group, strongest in Gaza, will not cooperate with the new leadership because it is almost entirely made up of figures who have proved in the past to be cooperative with the Americans and Israelis.

So, perhaps the best approach to take is the realistic one, taking it one step at a time. The prevailing view in the press this morning is that Sharon has so far done the right thing, opening the gates to allow whatever treatment Arafat needs, allowing him out of the country with a promise to let him come back. But there is also a working assumption in Israel this morning that Arafat will probably only return in a coffin. If so, the big decision will be where he will be buried. Israel will not want him buried on the Temple Mount, the Haram el Sharif, but that’s where more than anything else, Arafat wants to be buried. Many international leaders would likely want to attend the funeral. How Israel handles that issue, will to a large extent set the tone for whatever new relationship emerges afterward between the sides.