The national split

Thursday, October 21, 2004

Now, however, as Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, father of the post-1977 settlement movement, presses on with his disengagement plan, which means quitting all of Gaza as well as a section of the northern part of the West Bank – Samaria, in biblical terms – the Right is facing its moment of truth. It is far more significant moment than Binyamin Netanyahu’s Wye accord with Yasser Arafat, brokered by Bill Clinton, because no settlements were dismantled for the Wye accord, and all that really happened was the Palestinian police took responsibility for the Palestinian town of Hebron, leaving Israeli police – and army – to protect the Jewish enclave in Hebron.

hus, Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin, a longtime Sharon supporter in the Likud, can tell Yedioth Ahrnoth’s Nahum Barnea that ‘Sharon is not loyal to the Land of Israel’ and write to the 3,000 members of the powerful Likud central committee that the evacuation of Gaza and northern West Bank is ‘only the first step’ in Sharon’s plan and that ‘Yosh’ (Judea and Samaria) and Jerusalem’ are next. Rivlin’s comments were more fuel to the fire of debate. There is open talk now about threats against Likud MKs from anonymous and not so anonymous sources inside the Likud central committee. The threats have apparently gone past the point of warnings about MKs losing support the next time the central committee nominates its candidates for the Knesset. It’s becoming ‘life or death,’ says Yaacov Edri, the Likud MK – and deputy minister for public security, who told Israel Radio he regretted Rivlin’s remarks, especially in light of Shin Bet warnings about threats to Sharon’s life.

Sharon, in any case, does not appear to be dissuaded by threats, whatever their origin. He continues to press ahead to build up the already-existent majority in the Knesset for the disengagement plan. It’s now believed unlikely that Shas will vote in favor, so he’s hoping that at least it abstains. Defense Minister Mofaz apparently was not brilliant enough in his analysis to convince Shas Rabbi Ovadia Yosef that the disengagement without a deal with the Palestinians will save more lives than waiting in Gaza for the Palestinians to be ready to strike a deal with Israel.

Sharon’s goal is to forge as large a majority as possible, and if he can’t persuade a faction to vote in favor, he’s trying to persuade it to at least abstain – it’s all part of the strategy to prove to the public that the opponents of disengagement are a relatively small minority. As of this morning, the votes adding up in the Knesset were 66 in favor, 41 against and 13 undecided, a guaranteed majority even if all the undecided choose to vote against the disengagement plan next week. But Sharon wants to break the 70 mark in the 120-seat Knesset, and if possible, drive the active opponents to below 30 seats. For that, Shas has to shift its 11 votes into the abstention column. The Shas rabbi will probably announce his decision on Saturday night. Sharon is meanwhile meeting with every Knesset faction and playing hardball. There’s no offer of horse trading, to the disappointment of many an MK (including Shas). He threw out a ‘compromise proposal’ by Netanyahu for a referendum and another ‘compromise proposal’ for the disengagement allocations in the state budget to be presented separately from the rest of the budget, since the Likud ‘rebels’ – now numbered at 18 – are threatening to vote against his budget because it includes disengagement funds. Sharon is making only one argument as he meets with the MKs: every vote in favor (or at least not against) is a vote against ‘a split in the nation.’

Call it civil war, call it war between brothers, the fear of civil strife is tangible – at least in the headlines. The memory of Yitzhak Rabin’s assassination is still fresh, and coincidentally, next week, right after the vote in the Knesset, is the ninth (Hebrew calendar) anniversary of the shooting. Nobody seems to doubt that there is either a lone gunman or a small cell plotting to stop the disengagement by stopping Sharon – or conducting a spectacular enough attack on Arabs or an Arab symbol (like the mosques on the Temple Mount) that the entire conflict takes on a new shape, a war of 1.1 billion Muslims against 13 million Jews worldwide, something only a lunatic fringe could want. Trouble is, such a lunatic fringe does exist and it does not listen to chief rabbis or Yesha Councils, let alone any elected MK.

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