The options narrow

Friday, October 15, 2004

aybe things aren’t as bad for Sharon as they appear. The math in the Knesset adds up to 65-69 (Jewish) votes in favor of disengagement, and the prevailing wisdom nowadays is that if those hands all go up on October 26, when the vote is supposed to take place it will knock the wind out of the settler movement’s sails. Already last night, despite settler predictions that half a million Israelis would demonstrate at 100 different locations, a number they rolled back to 150,000 demonstrators, the police were saying that it was only a few thousand at a few sites and a handful at the rest. And the conventional wisdom is that comments by former chief rabbi Avraham Shapira ordering his former students from Merkaz Harav, the influential yeshiva, to disobey orders to participate in the evacuation process, were likely to fall on deaf ears.

The trouble is that nowadays, nothing is what it seems. Shas is suddenly talking about reconsidering its opposition to the disengagement plan, but it’s really trying to maneuver Sharon into firing Shinui. Labor’s leadership is saying it will only vote in favor of disengagement, nothing else that Sharon proposes, but its leadership is going to a meeting with him next week where he is presumably going to offer that they join his government. Meretz keeps slamming the disengagement plan, but Sharon at least is counting on those six votes in the Knesset to pass the bill. And Sharon’s political calculations seem to have been wrong every step of the way, ever since he announced his unilateral disengagement plan. Now there’s talk about the Likud ‘rebels,’ 14 mostly backbench MKs who are firmly against the disengagement, also voting against the budget, because it will include allocations for the disengagement.

He doesn’t want elections. That’s for sure. Elections would mean going to the Likud for a renewed mandate to lead it, and right now, he can’t be sure he would win such a mandate from the central committee, or the rank and file – even though all the polls show that without him, the Likud’s popularity as the ruling party drops precipitously, to fewer than 30 MKs, possibly closer to 20 than 30.

Nor does he want a referendum. It would slow down the evacuation to a halt, which would mean more international pressure, which is about to resume full force as soon as the American elections are over. He’s already feeling it from the European Union, from Javier Solana, who said this week that if Sharon intends for the Gaza withdrawal to end to the political process, Israel could face sanctions from the EU. The UN, meanwhile, is warning Sharon that if Israel keeps slamming UNRWA, the UN agency will simply pack up and leave, which would mean Israel, as the occupying power, would have to come up with hundreds of millions of dollars a year to feed Palestinian refugees in Gaza and the West Bank.

The goddess loves -- Mixed media on paper, 50x70 cm by Silvia Rosenberg

t’s not even sure he wants a new coalition. Bringing in Labor and Shas and losing Shinui could bring Netanyahu and possibly Silvan Shalom out into the open as opponents of the disengagement, since a new coalition with Shas and Labor would mean a new economic policy (which some economists are estimating will cost as much as NIS 2 billion in payments to pet projects for both parties) and if Peres has his way, the foreign ministry slipping out of Shalom’s hands and going to Labor.

Thus, the options are narrowing. As a general, he had a reputation for pulling off surprise moves and by definition, a surprise is difficult to predict. Nonetheless, there are possibilities: He could succeed in holding together those 65-69 votes. Or, as some have suggested (including his deputy and firmest ally, Ehud Olmert) he could form a new coalition with Labor and Shinui, which would mean once again ignoring the Likud central committee, which has ruled that Labor can only be added to the coalition if he brings Shas in as well. A three-way ‘secular’ coalition would be the Big Bang, so often mentioned nowadays, the start of the realignment of the political forces in the country. But Sharon has reportedly ruled that out, as well.

Meanwhile, he did get some good news on a completely different front. The Palestinian Authority controlled Waqf in Jerusalem, backed by Jordanian engineers, did shore up the supports inside Solomon’s Stables against the possibility of ceiling collapsing, as was warned by Israeli archaeological experts. And the Waqf also cordoned off the area above the Solomon’s Stables area in the southeast section of the Temple Mount / Haram el Sharif plaza to prevent the weight of thousands of worshippers above pressing down on the ceiling above the thousands who will attend Ramadan prayers today inside the mosque below as well as above. Sharon had been on the verge of okaying a police request to limit the number of Muslim worshippers on the mount for the Ramadan prayers. Instead, the police said this morning that there would be no limit on the numbers of people allowed to attend. Tens of thousands of Muslims are expected there today.

And under pressure from the Americans and Europeans, Israel began reducing its presence in Jabalya refugee camp and the northern Gaza Strip, where troops had taken up positions more than two weeks ago to try to prevent Qassam rockets from being launched toward Sderot. More than 110 Palestinains – including dozens of civilians – were killed during the incursion, known as Operation Days of Penitence, launched in the wake of a Qassam rocket killing two toddlers in Sderot on Sukkot eve.

Today's Situation || Yesterday's Situation