Conundrums, political and military

Thursday, October 14, 2004

Shas, meanwhile, is suddenly reconsidering its position against disengagement, mostly because of the opportunity to force Shinui out of government and to go back into government, as part of a new coalition with the Likud and Labor. Sharon aides say that there won’t be a new coalition before the October 25 vote in the Knesset on disengagement but next week, Sharon will meet with the leadership of the ultra-Orthodox parties and with Labor Party leaders. There are no plans for him to meet with Arab MKs or Meretz MKs, whom he seems to assume will vote in favor of the disengagement plan. But Arab MKs, at least, are talking about setting conditions for their support for the disengagement plan, while Meretz is saying that the Weisglass interview proved what they’ve been saying all along – disengagement is a trick – that will fail in the long run – to avoid political dialogue with the Palestinians.

The situation in the territories also remains static – meaning in a state of deterioration.

The goddess loves -- Mixed media on paper, 50x70 cm by Silvia Rosenberg

n Gaza, five men were killed overnight in helicopter and infantry raids against Hamas and al-Aqsa Brigades operatives in Jabalya refugee camp, Beit Lahiya and Rafah. According to the Palestainins, two of the dead were armed men, the rest were innocent civilians, inncluding a a 70-year-old man, killed in strike in Rafah refugee camp. There have been mounting civilian casualties in recent days and the European Union has offered to mediate an Israeli withdrawal and an end to the Palestinian Qassam fire, while also warning that if Israel’s intentions in its disengagement are as Weisglass said, the EU will have no choice but to apply sanctions on Israel. Sharon told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee this morning that the ‘Operation Days of Penitence’ will continue until the Palestinians ‘stop attacking Israelis’ and said the disengagement plan was not meant to block the roadmap. He said he ordered the army to make sure there are no attacks on Israelis during the disengagement, which the Rightist MKs interpreted as meaning there won’t be a disengagement and which the Left said was a worthy goal, though not likely.

An internal Foreign Ministry analysis meanwhile was reported this morning as pointing out that Israel is heading for a head-on clash with the EU, which could lead to full-scale sanctions against the Jewish state. Meanwhile, despite IDF formal admission yesterday that the long slender object seen in a video being loaded onto a UN ambulance was a stretcher and not a Qassam rocket as Israel originally alleged, Israel won’t apologize for the affair and continues to insist that there are UN employees in Gaza and the West Bank who are helping the gunmen.

Defense Minister Mofaz meanwhile was taking pride in the army’s arrest of Iwad Qawasme, the Hamas chief in Hebron, who emerged from a hiding place in a supposedly abandoned warehouse searched by Israeli troops hunting for another wanted man. Mofaz said the arrest of Qawasme, who orchestrated the recent Beersheba double bus bombing and many other attacks on Israelis civilians and soldiers in the last year, will reduce terror in the Hebron area for some time. But it’s obvious to all that it won’t take long for Qawasme – heading for a political career in Israeli prisons – will be quickly replaced by another Hamas activist, just as Qawasme rose from a low-ranking position in the organization over the past year and a half to become the Hamas boss in Hebron, the most religious of the West Bank’s towns.

Meanwhile, Ramadan begins tomorrow. The Israeli authorities, relying on archaeological experts and engineers, remain convinced that the ceiling above Solomon’s Stables mosque under the southeast corner of the Temple Mount/Hara al Sharif plaza, is weak, due to recent earth tremors and possibly poor construction methods used by the Waqf. With as many as a quarter million Muslims due to attend Ramadan prayers, Israel wants to cordon off the area above the Solomon’s Stables area, an underground mosque that can hold thousands – and where thousands could die if the ceiling were to collapse. The Waqf says the Israeli concern is exaggerated, that Israel has no right to limit attendance, and that everything is fine at Solomon’s Stables. More politicized Waqf officials say that Israeli worries are a cover up for a deliberate obstruction of Muslim prayer on the mount. Acting Public Security Minister Gideon Ezra said that since Israel is responsible for public safety, it would nonetheless take action to limit the numbers on the mount.

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