After the terror, before the storm

Monday, October 11, 2004

he prime minister set the tone. At yesterday’s cabinet meeting he read a statement explicitly stating the terror attacks in Sinai were aimed at Israelis, ‘despite the fact’ the bombings took place in Egypt. Of the 32 people killed, 12 were Israelis, 9 Egyptian, 2 Italians and nine were Russians, but that basic information was almost impossible to find in the tabloid press, buried deep inside the pages far after the stories of miraculous survival and tragic death. Egypt is expected to lose several billion dollars in lost tourism income until the memory of the terror attacks fade and tourists return to the ‘Red Sea Riviera’ as the Egyptian advertising refers to it.

Despite some discordant voices – mostly from the Right – about ‘Egyptian indifference to dying Jews’ as some described the delays moving rescue equipment the 200 meters from the Israeli border to the Taba hotel, the experience of the last few days actually provided one glimmer of light in the story: there was shoulder-to-shoulder Egyptian-Israeli cooperation on the ground at Taba and more importantly, there is close cooperation between Egyptian and Israeli intelligence as the investigation into the bombings continues. The Egyptians have so far arrested several Sinai Bedouin presumably as unwitting accomplices to a cell somehow affiliated with Al Qaida. That’s Israel’s view. The Egyptians are being more cautious with their attribution of blame, apparently worried that Egyptians were behind the bombings. Mubarak has not mentioned the terror attacks in public since the bombs went off at Taba and Ras Satan on Thursday night. Meanwhile, Egypt is reportedly holding informal talks with Israel about increasing Cairo’s security presence in Sinai’s demilitarized zones, a sensitive subject between the two countries – but since Sharon wants Egypt to play a major security role in Gaza after disengagement it is possible he will allow a higher profile for Egyptian security in Sinai.

The goddess loves -- Mixed media on paper, 50x70 cm by Silvia Rosenberg

hile the talk about the terror did dominate the morning chat shows, by mid-day, the looming Knesset winter session, due to open this afternoon, took over. Prime Minister Sharon is due to deliver the traditional session-opening state of the nation speech and a mention of his disengagement plan could reveal how deep his political problems run, since Likud ‘rebels´ are threatening to vote against a conformation of his speech, Labor is no longer providing an automatic ‘parliamentary safety net’ and it is entirely possible that the most important vote this winter will be for an early election. But political volatility is so intense now, that nobody is taking bets in any direction. No less likely as new elections is the fear of new elections driving at least parts of Labor and Likud into each other’s arms in a new coalition. It is almost certain that as Sharon plows ahead with his disengagement plan, part of the Likud will splinter and the Right will try to reconsolidate into a new party that combines religious nationalists and secular nationalists. That’s never succeeded in the past, but never has a prime minister – particularly one from the Right – undertaken a wholesale dismantling of settlements, which have been the raison d’etre for most of the political Right since 1967.

Meanwhile, a Haaretz report about the prime minister turning down an IDF request to wrap up its ‘Operation Days of Penitence’ incursion in Gaza has not prompted any denials from either the army or the Prime Minister’s Office. At least 114 Palestinians have so far been killed – but even the army admits that 39 of them were unarmed civilians. The army’s reasoning for quitting Gaza is that the longer the soldiers remain, the more likely they will become vulnerable targets for Palestinian gunmen. Sharon’s rationale for keeping the troops at work in Gaza is that they have been successful at putting pressure on the armed cells, particularly in Jabalya refugee camp.

On another front, the Border Police and army, and the settlers, are gearing up for a confrontation in the West Bank over several inhabited illegal outposts. The settlers have tried all the legal recourse available to them, but last week, while attention was on Gaza, the High Court of Justice apparently removed the last obstacle in the way of a forcible evacuation of the inhabited outposts, homes to some of the most radical of West Bank settlers. The Border Police are planning to send more than 1,000 troops – backed by about 1,000 soldiers – to each of the five outposts slated for removal. The settlers say they can summon as many as 7,000 settlers to each of the outposts for the showdown. Both sides are aware that if and when the confrontation over the outposts takes place it will have direct bearing on the evacuation of Gaza and the four isolated settlements of the northern West Bank in the Jenin area.

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