The holidays are over, a long hot winter approaches

Thursday, October 07, 2004

Weisglass’ portrayal of his negotiations with the Americans – the full text comes out tomorrow – includes bizarre tidbits about how it is impolite to talk about informal ‘drop in’ meetings with the president of the United States when you happen to be sitting in the office of the president’s national security advisor, but then he brags that he’s heard from people who know, that Bush has been known to tell some of the jokes that Weisglass told him.

The mystery is why Weisglass gave the interview. It prompted an angry reaction from the State Department, which incredibly seemed to have apparently learned for the first time from Weisglass’ comments that the entire disengagement exercise was an attempt to pull the rug out from under Bush’s ‘two-state vision’ for a solution to the Palestinian problem.

The conventional wisdom is that as attacks on Sharon intensify from the right, he needs to reassure them that the real goal of the disengagement from Gaza and four isolated settlements in the Jenin area, is to guarantee Israel’s hold on the Biblical homelands of Judea and Samaria – the West Bank. Perhaps. But surely Weisglass is not the person to deliver that message. Other speculation is that Weisglass, a commercial-civil lawyer, was eager to get back to work after nearly two years of serving Sharon as bureau chief but once back at work, misses the glamour of power, even though he still does an occasional ‘consultation’ errand for Sharon.

In any case, it took a few hours for the Sharon office to realize that ‘Dubi,’ as Weisglass is known, had dropped the prime minister into hot water. Israel Radio was told Sharon still stands by the roadmap (in his New Year interviews he also had said the disengagement plan obviates the need for roadmap). Phone calls apparently were made – Wesiglass, of course, used the standard fall back, ‘my comments were taken out of context’ – and Secretary of State Colin Powell said something about the U.S. being confident in Sharon’s commitment to the political process. What else could he say less than a month to the American elections?

The goddess loves -- Mixed media on paper, 50x70 cm by Silvia Rosenberg

rouble is, Weisglass remarks plays into the hands of the still-weak Left in Israel which is soon to face a real conundrum: should it vote in favor of the disengagement bill that Sharon will be bringing to the Knesset later this month. Nobody has mentioned it publicly yet, but Sharon surely is counting on votes from the Left to make up the votes he’s lost from the Right when he began pushing his plan. Yahad’s Yossei Beilin slammed Sharon for Weisglass’ ‘frightening’ remarks, saying they exposed the real truth: ‘it’s Sharon who is not a partner for peace.’

Until now Beilin has been saying that Yahad would vote in favor of disengagement because it cannot oppose a withdrawal from any occupied territory. On the other hand, there is growing speculation about how the disengagement bill will be an earthquake in Israeli politics, possibly splitting the Likud, forcing realignments on the Right and Center, and possibly energizing the Left. In other words, the smell of elections is wafting through the air. Predictions now range from sometime in spring 2005, for those hoping to block disengagement, to sometime in the fall, for those expecting Sharon to try to win another sweeping victory after a successful disengagement. In short, the month-long Jewish New Year holidays are ending this weekend and now a long hot winter in the Knesset approaches.

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