Trying everything but talking

Monday, October 04, 2004

Presumably, as far as the army is concerned, it is the Palestinians who must undertake the penitence. The army’s operation in and around Jabalya and Beit Hanoun is focused almost entirely on killing Hamas and Islamic Jihad cells of Palestinians who have made the Qassam rockets the latest Palestinian tactic that pushes Israeli officials off balance.

But there is no way to send 100 or more tanks and bulky bulldozers, APCs and other heavy equipment into northern Gaza without damaging homes and commercial centers. And while most of the estimated 75 Palestinians killed as of this morning were indeed armed men trying to either launch Qassams or resist the Israeli incursion, at least a dozen were civilian bystanders.

But the Palestinian Qassam war against Sderot and the Israeli military response exposed fundamental flaws in the strategies of both sides. On the Palestinian side, not only does the Qassam fire prove that the Hamas, no matter how popular in the streets of Gaza, is essentially leaderless and possibly rudderless since the Israeli assassinations of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdul Aziz Rantisi earlier this year.

Mohammed a Zahar and Ismail Haniye, commonly assumed to be the Hamas leaders in Gaza now, simply don’t have the charismatic authority that can control mostly young angry men who feel empowered by their use of weapons, no matter how ineffective they are. Khalad Mashal, whether he is in Damascus or not, is nonetheless far from the streets and alleys of Jabalyal, considered the most densely populated place in the world, home to the gunmen and Qassam makers. True, he takes a harder line than Haniye and Zahar, who are pretty much ignored by the cells (that operate separately, under their own leaderships) but it is difficult to believe that the 20-year-olds in the cells wait for Mashal to give the order before they head off to the groves of Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahiye or the outskirts of Jabalya, to set up the tripod launchers for their Qassam rockets.

Less difficult to believe is that at least some of the estimated 10,000 UNRWA employees in Gaza and the West Bank (another 13,000 work overseas in refugee camps elsewhere in the Arab world) do in fact cooperate with armed men.

But Israel probably barked up the wrong tree when it released video taken by a pilotless drone flying over Jabalya, showing a UNRWA paramedic carrying what Israel said was a Qassam rocket and UNRWA’s boss, Peter Hansen, said was a stretcher. Every time Qassams are seen being carried by Palestinians, it is clearly an effort to carry the heavy rockets, often divided between two people. In the video, the paramedic is clearly seen easily jogging with the long dark object, indeed carrying it with one hand. And Qassams don’t have flapping straps, like the object in the fuzzy black and white video.

Just as the armed men and Hamas leaders seem to be out of control responding with nearly Pavolovian reactions to whatever Israel does – and with Yassin and Rantisi no longer around to restrain them, the gunmen ignore mounting grassroots disapproval of the attacks into Israel (the Palestinian Legislative Council passed a resolution over the weekend against the rocket attacks on Israel – though not against mortar attacks on settlements), so are Israel’s responses seemingly Pavlovian, meaning ingrained, without almost any thought.

Everything in Israel’s reaction is based on the use of force, from the talk about developing a new anti-Qassam rocket (as reported this morning by Maariv – and almost immediately derided as absurdly expensive for what is essentially an annoyance. At most, said experts from Rafael, speaking to Israel Radio and Army Radio, lasers could theoretically be developed for the purpose, though that, too, would be very expensive) to the massive use of force to occupy every specific place used by Palestinians to launch Qassams.

Few Israelis are talking openly – or even behind closed doors – about trying to talk with the Palestinians, when it is clear to all that there is no real military solution to the Qassams. Despite the army’s aggressive movements through the northern Gaza area, Qassams have been hitting the Western Negev since the operation began, most recently this morning, wounding one man.

True, the ‘Leftist’ opposition calls for talks with Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei;, but Prime Minister Ariel Sharon brushes off any mention of talk with any Palestinian politicians. The entire purpose of his unilateral disengagement plan, he has said, is to block the road map, which requires negotiations with the Palestinians for a final status agreement, and as far as he is concerned, the most important element of the plan is its unilateralism, meaning no dialogue with the Palestinians (or for that matter, with the disengagement opponents in Israel).

The grassroots apathy (except among settlement movement supporters) about what is taking place in Gaza and the disengagement is nowadays explained by the month long holiday season, which will come to an end at the end of this week when the Simhat Torah celebrations on Thursday are over. Next Sunday, presumably Israelis will be back home and at work.

But the no partner theory is ingrained now in mainstream Israeli political discourse. Labor Party leader Shimon Peres has said that Israel should be talking with Qurei’ but few in Israel pay much attention to him, particularly now that Ehud Barak has made clear he is returning to Labor Party politics. Barak is the Israeli politician who planted the ‘no partner’ seed in local political discourse, when he returned from Camp David and delivered a grim ‘Citizens of Israel’ speech at the airport, announcing the failure of the summit he forced on the Americans and Palestinians. Barak is also the only ‘Leftist’ politician, except perhaps Amir Peretz, who commands the personal loyalty of a grassroots network ready to throw themselves into a campaign to see him elected. Indeed, Histradrut chief Peretz has announced that if Barak is going to seek Labor’s nomination as its candidate for prime minister, Peretz will be there to race against Barak. Peretz meanwhile gets about 15 percent approval among Labor voters, while Barak commands about 30 percent approval of Labor voters. But the numbers are probably very fluid, since so far, it’s all theoretical – almost like the disengagement plan.

From 'The Goddess Loves' series -- Mixed media on paper, 50x70 cm by Silvia Rosenberg

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