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Three Scenarios for the Middle East

From the

2004 State of the Future by Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon

American Council for the United Nations University, 2004, Washington D.C.

Scenario 1. Water Works

ow that peace seems to have been finally achieved in the Middle East, everyone is claiming credit for the success. Historians will document the many causes, but most agree today that when the First Lady of Egypt responded to the worsening water crises by inviting UNEP, UNDP, and the Quartet (EU, United States, Russia, and the UN) to be the co-conveners of an exploratory conference on Middle East water, a new sense of hope began to grow in the region.

Scenario 2. Open City

he white smoke signaled the election of a new pope. He assumed the office with humility and fervor. His priority, he announced, was facilitating peace around the world, particularly in the Middle East. He began his mission by addressing the Jerusalem question. Although his advisors cautioned you can only blunt your authority, it's unsolvable, he maintained that God had given him this mission and as far as he and the church were concerned this took priority over politics.

Scenario 3.
Dove

n Israel, it started with a simple idea: end the retaliatory violence. The plan was code-named Dove. Israeli leaders debated the possibility in secret; the debate occasionally became public for a short while in the Knesset, but by and large it was secret. The idea of Dove was to turn world opinion, possibly even the preponderance of Palestinian and Arab opinion, against the idea of suicide bombings ...

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