Today's Situation

ElBaradei arrives tonight

Tuesday, July 06, 2004

A lot has transpired since, not the least being the end of the Cold War, the proliferation of nuclear technology to countries like India, Pakistan and South Africa, and various foreign reports about Israel's nuclear capabilities, including the 18-year-old revelations by lowly technician Mordechai Vanunu that the Dimona nuclear reactor – long dubbed a textile plant, wink, wink, by official Israel – is a manufacturing plant for nuclear bombs.

Nobody has any doubts that Israel has the bomb – and that it will do what it can to make sure that nobody else in the region gets a nuclear bomb, at least until the wolf lies down with the lamb in the Middle East and peace reigns from the Atlantic to the Pacific. After all, it was Israel that deprived Saddam Hussein of his nuclear reactor outside Baghdad and it has been Israel that has been most vocal in recent years about concerns regarding Tehran's efforts to acquire the ultimate weapon of mass destruction, an issue that appears heading toward the UN Security Council as Tehran ducks and dodges demands from the IAEA that it come clean on all its nuclear production facilities.

Woman Crucified # 3 by Silvia Rosenberg, mixed media on recycled paper, 20x30 cm.

ut inside Israel there is little debate about the wisdom of its 40-year-old policy of ambiguity. There are only a handful of researchers and journalists who have made the subject their expertise, while the public's assumption, as expressed in the popular press, seems to be that of course Israel has the bomb, and justifiably so, given the general attitudes toward Israel in the Islamic and Arab world, and that it's best to keep it a secret in case someone like ElBaradei tries to take it away. There is an argument being made, however, that since it is inevitable that Tehran will get the bomb, Israel must adjust its thinking, to the kind of 'mutually assured destruction' policy that on the one hand was the cornerstone of the Cold War but also enabled, indeed forced, dialogue between the sides.

ElBaradei is not expected to try to 'take the bomb away from Israel' but he is expected to propose Israel take part in regional-level deliberations about making the Middle East a nuclear-free zone. Israel is in favor of making the region nuclear free – after it has peace treaties with all the countries in the region. The Arabs, led by Egypt, who would like to see Israel stripped of the bomb, say the deliberations about creating a nuclear free zone should be part of the peace process, indeed, a top issue on the agenda. The foreseeable compromise is apparently going to be Israeli participation in 'academic-style' deliberations, meaning that nothing will actually be decided. But it will be a start.

ElBaradei has visited Israel before in his capacity as IAEA chief, and indeed, Israeli was one of the first member countries of the Swiss-based agency that was created by the international community in the days of Dwight Eisenhower and 'Atoms for Peace.' Israel is a member in good standing of the IAEA, sharing know-how in medical and agricultural nuclear methods. But the conventional wisdom is that if the Iranians do get the bomb, the IAEA, as the international authority that conducts the on-the-ground inspections to verify compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, will be rendered meaningless, something that few must want.

hile ElBaradei is in Israel his hosts have planned a helicopter trip for him over the country, the usual trip for foreign dignitaries to help them understand how small the country is and why its strategic concerns are so high strung. But while he and his hosts concentrate on the highest levels of strategic thinking, on the ground, the events are also influencing strategies. In Jerusalem, the Quartet, backed by the World Bank, suddenly canceled a press conference where they were expected to state in somewhat less than diplomatic terms that without a massive international aid campaign – and proactive Israeli cooperation – Gaza faces a major economic catastrophe after any Israeli withdrawal, particularly if Sharon and Mofaz insist on leaving in Israeli hands all commerce in and out of the Strip and refuse to allow the Palestinians a working airport and working port in Gaza. The Quartet members will be meeting donor countries today and tomorrow are slated to meet with Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei'.

In Gaza, the Fatah movement is reportedly going defying Yasser Arafat and going ahead with local branch elections. The voting began on May 26, and is moving from precinct to precinct through the Strip, starting in the north. So far, the voters have thrown out many Arafat cronies in favor of a new generation of Fatah officials, mostly aligned with Mohammad Dahlan. The reformists are winning the elections and are considered critical in the long run because those elected will eventually vote for the Fatah's revolutionary council, which elects the movement's central committee. Turnout is high, says Sufian Abu Zaide, in charge of the voting organization for northern Gaza. According to Abu Zaide, who refused to comment on the results so far, the victors so far have been reformists, practically a codeword for Dahlan supporters.

And also in Gaza today, IDF troops killed two armed Palestinians near the Kissufim road in Gaza Strip, while last night in the Nablus refugee camp on the West Bank, a commando unit captain was killed and three other soldiers were wounded in clashes while trying to capture the local heads of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. During the fighting, Dr. Khaled Saleh, an academic from An Najah University, and his son Mohammed, 16, both American citizens, were also killed. The IDF apologized for the deaths of the two civilians, who were killed when the army called in a helicopter to strike at a building where the PFLP commander had taken refuge and was firing on troops below. According to the regional commander, Gadi Eizencott, the army has undertaken some 800 special operations such as the overnight one in Nablus, since the start of the year.

Meanwhile, the Shin Bet has reportedly stepped up bodyguard protection for Sharon in the wake of rising concern about anti-disengagement rhetoric in the radical Right, where the talk now is of physically resisting soldiers or police who come to evict them and about how Sharon has thrown out democratic rules, so they will too. Seemingly adding fuel to the flames was Shin Bet chief Avi Dichter's warnings about the possibility that radical Rightists might try to follow in the footsteps of Baruch Goldstein or Yigal Amir to try to prevent the disengagement from taking place. Sharon last night said that he was troubled by the fact that he, who spent most of his life fighting in Israel's wars to defend Jews now needs protection from Jews. Ironically, in the months leading up to Yitzhak Rabin's assassination in 1995, Sharon was among those on the Right who mocked Shin Bet warnings about an incendiary atmosphere of violent rhetoric among Rightists opposed to the Oslo accords, calling the warnings the work of 'politically motivated provocateurs' serving the prime minister by trying to marginalize and outlaw opposition to Rabin's peace plans. Last night, Sharon called on Justice Minister Yosef Lapid to see to it that legal action is taken against 'those preaching incitement.'

You're reading 'The Situation' Monday-Friday mid-day reports from Israel by Robert Rosenberg The text on the Ariga Home Page changes Monday-Friday, around 2 P.M. Tel Aviv time (GMT+2, EST+7, PST+10). Photo of the Day, courtesy of BauBau changes on average once every 12 hours Paintings by Silvia Rosenberg (unless otherwise noted) change weekly.

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