Today's Situation

Domestic politics behind diplomacy

Wednesday, April 07, 2004

Yasser Arafat told a German newsweekly this week that he would like to see the Hamas as a partner in making national decisions, but as is his wont, in practically the same breath, Arafat praised what he called Sheikh Ahmed Yassin's 'moderation' apparently compared to the more militant Abdel Aziz Rantisi.

The Arafat interview prompted the U.S. to warn Arafat not to align with Hamas – which this weekend responded to Ariel Sharon's unveiled threats against Arafat with a vow to conduct a wave of suicide bombings across Israel is Arafat is harmed – because Hamas is a terror group. But Mohammed Dahlan, whom the Americans (and Israelis) would prefer to see running the show in Gaza, largely because in the past he has struck hard at Hamas militants, welcomed the idea of cooperation between Hamas and the PA.

onfusing? Not really. Arafat's sudden overtures to Hamas, his major rival, is also a message to Washington: If you don't make sure the PA is involved in an orderly handover of the territories Israel evacuates in Gaza (and the West Bank) the PA can find a partnter elsewhere. And the Hamas, which long vilified Arafat and his regime as corrupt, and refused cooperation with the regime created by the much despised Oslo accords, sees an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza on the horizon and for the first time is interested in becoming part of the power structure. In any case, the Palestinian Foreign Minister Nabil Shaath is going to the U.S. a few days after Sharon's visit there next week, for meetings with Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice.

That might be a signal that the spin that continues to come out of Sharon's office that everything is going just as planned with the Americans on their approval of the prime minister's disengagement plan may not be the entire story. After all, Sharon's entire plan is based on no coordination between Israel and the PA on any withdrawal – and it seems very odd that given all its other problems in the Middle East right now, the U.S. wants to play the role of the 'third party' Sharon keeps referring to when he talks about how Israel would leave Gaza without speaking to the Palestinians, letting a third party run the handover of the abandoned settlements to the Palestinians. In any case, Israel Radio, the most sycophantic of the Israeli media toward the Prime Minister's Office spin was reporting Sha'ath's comments that the Quartet and Americans had promised the Palestinians would be involved in a disengagement process and that the U.S. had promised financial assistance to the Palestinian Authority in the event of an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, on condition the PA beef up its security forces in the Strip.

And there's still the referendum genie and the internal Likud politics. Sharon and Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the disengagement plan on Tuesday night. According to Israel Radio political analyst, the finance minister has a poll showing Sharon will lose the referendum of the Likud rank and file on the disengagement plan – and by a large margin. Netanyahu has reluctantly accepted the disengagement 'as a train that has left the station' but is still conditioning his full-fledged support on qui pro quos that the Americans probably cannot provide. Sharon can probably only expect some vague promises of support from Bush, who will see Egyptian President Mubarak before his meeting with Sharon and will meet with Jordan's King Abdullah after the Sharon visit. The newly announced Sha'ath meeting will also be a factor now, in the movement toward a U.S. decision on the details, not principles, of the disengagement plan. Bush cannot afford a 'failed' meeting with Sharon – but neither can the U.S. afford to 'green light' a Sharon plan in which they leave the details to the devil.

And meanwhile, police remain on high alert throughout the country.

Today's Situation || Yesterday's Situation