The Situation

Text by Robert Rosenberg, images by Silvia Rosenberg (unless otherwise noted)

Waiting for Sharon's speech

Thursday, December 18, 2003

The launch, from Voyages to Promised Lands 1982, Acrylic on paper

Sure, there was the obligatory speculation, with a consensus that he plans to give the roadmap – and Ahmed Qurei’, the Palestinian prime minister – six more months, and then undertake ‘unilateral’ moves aimed at easing security conditions for Israel, and that moves will include ‘moving’ settlements. How many settlements, where the new lines will be located, will the fence be in effect a new border with everything east of it left in Palestinian hands – nobody was taking the chance of predicting Sharon would provide any detailed answers tonight. That will no doubt disappoint the TV and radio stations local and international that have signed up to broadcast the speech live, including Al Jezeera and CNN.

Meanwhile, Palestinian Authority officials were continuing talks in Cairo with the Egyptians about a cease-fire, which conventional wisdom says Qurei’ wants to bring to Sharon as a done deal their first official meeting, seeking Sharon’s agreement for a bilateral truce with the PA. Ahead of the Sharon speech, the dovish Council for Peace and Security, a large association of former senior officers from the army and intelligence services, published large advertisements in the written press calling on Sharon to bite the bullet and admit that the settlements must be evacuated, Israel should withdraw to more or less the 1967 lines, and the fence should go up along those lines. It was highly unlikely Sharon would accept the advice from many of his former army buddies. And yesterday, his foreign minister, Silvan Shalom, delivered a vehement speech at Herzliya, attacking unilateral moves as a concept, let alone as a strategy or tactic.

eanwhile, on the far Right, the settlers continued preparing for what they promised would be tens of thousands of supporters who would flood the settlements Sharon names as designated for evacuation in the ‘unilateral’ steps he is supposedly going to announce. Or not. In any case, Welfare Minister Zevuln Orlev of the National Religious Party said last night his party will remain in the coalition, even if settlements are dismantled, but his party chairman, Effi Eitam went on Israel Radio to say ‘no way.’

Regarding the fence, Israel Radio curiously reported this morning that German Foreign Minister Josckhe Fischer expressed understandings of the planned fence – but according to the texts of the statements he made, he certainly was opposed to any fence going up east of the Green Line. According to the defense ministry, the fence is now due for completion by the end of 2005.

The upcoming vote in the Knesset on the budget has uncovered bitter disputes between the defense ministry and the treasury over the defense budget, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said ‘never in the past has a defense budget been so sloppily prepared.’ Chief of Staff Moshe Ya’alon said the budget ‘threatens the very existence of the defensive force.’ He was attending a session of the Knesset Defense Budget Subcommittee, chaired by MK Uri Ariel, of the National Union, who refused to allow a vote on the defense budget, saying it was incompetently prepared. Former finance minister Avraham Shochat said the defense minister should resign, if he feels he cannot provide national security with such a budget.

he attacks on the treasury did not specifically name Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who was under attack today for his comments yesterday in Herzliya saying that the real demographic problem is not the Palestinians in the territories but Israeli Arabs. According to Arnon Sofer, considered the leading expert on the demography of Israel, Netanyahu’s numbers cited yesterday, predicting that in 20 years the Arab minority could be as large as 35 to 40 percent of the population, was ‘very far-fetched and far from realistic.’ Speaking to Israel Radio, Sofer said conservative estimates were showing that by 2020, Israeli Arabs would be around 26 percent of the population – inside the Green Line. Sofer has been predicting for the last decade that sometime between 2005 and 2010, non-Jews will be the majority between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River. Arab MKs, such as Ahmed Tibi of Hadash, called Netanyahu’s remarks racist and warned that they would only exacerbate the delicate existing relationship between Jews and Arabs in the country. Meanwhile, a Shin Bet study found a sharp drop in Israeli Arabs involvement in terror, with about half the number of arrests in 2003 (around 40) than there were in 2002 (around 75). Dr. Yitzhak Ravid, a senior researcher at Rafael - Israel's Armament Development Authority - proposed during a short speech in Herzliya, that the state implement a stringent policy of family planning in relation to its Muslim population, claiming that ‘the delivery rooms in Soroka Hospital in Be'er Sheva have turned into a factory for the production of a backward population.’ But Brigadier General (res.) Uzi Dayan, the former head of the National Security Council, told the conference today that Arab citizens of the state would never pose a demographic threat, and warned that the central problems were the civic relations between Jews and Arabs, and the lack of social cohesion resulting from inequalities.

One interesting diplomatic riff was a slight reverberation of Foreign Ministry Director General Yoav Biran’s remarks in Herzliya yesterday, criticizing the heavy IDF involvement as consultants in governmental decision-making on diplomatic issues, warning that diplomats, not soldiers, are better prepared to analyze the international ramifications of government steps. His predecessor, Alon Liel, went on Israel Radio this morning to say he hasn’t heard about anyone from Biran’s ministry slamming their fist on the table to make a point during the meetings where the diplomats are overshadowed by the officers. ‘Are they afraid to do so?’ he was asked by the interviewer, who implied the fear was of the prime minister and foreign minister. ‘Absolutely,’ said Liel.

And there was another sign of the deteriorating standards at the government-controlled Israel Broadcasting Authority, which runs Israel Radio and Channel One, when Dan Margalit, perhaps the most consensus-driven journalist in Israel, handed in his resignation from his position as moderator of Channel One’s weekly Popolitika round table current affairs program, citing political interference in the program’s content and staffing. Margalit continues to write for Maariv and there were reports yesterday he would take his show to Channel 10, an upstart station that American businessman Ron Lauder recently took a major stake in with an Israeli partner who has so far financed Right wing media platforms. Despite that takeover, Channel 10’s editorial department, as evident in its news and current affairs programming, is considered the hardest hitting of all three Israeli channels.

Recommended articles:

The Barrier of Jerusalem – Political Not Security by Gershon Baskin, December 09, 2003

FOUR HORSEMEN OF THE APOCYALYPSE On November 14, 2003, in a dramatic development, four former Shin Bet chiefs call on the political leadership to make peace with the Palestinians. Read the full interview.

Sharon’s policy is bringing us to the brink of existential abyss a speech by Victoria Buch to the Peace Coalition weekly vigil outside the Prime Minister's Residence, November 29, 2003

The Weathervanes Are Turning Uri Avnery analyzes the changes that led to Ehud Olmert saying Israel must quit the West Bank and Gaza.

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