The Situation

Text by Robert Rosenberg, images by Silvia Rosenberg (unless otherwise noted)

Netanyahu speaks

Wednesday, December 17, 2003

The launch, from Voyages to Promised Lands 1982, Acrylic on paper

The finance minister, who struck a deal with the prime minister when he became finance minister not to attack Sharon’s foreign policies regarding security, the territories and Palestinians, in exchange for a totally free hand from the prime minister in the economy – a deal that has worked so far – spoke out for the first time on the recent talk of unilateral withdrawal, saying it undermined the prime minister’s maneuverability and ‘besides, making concessions without getting anything in return, is a mistake, as I’ve always said. They should get when they give … and that is only possible through negotiations.’

nother significant meeting today was in Gaza, where Hamas and Islamic Jihad negotiators met with officials working for Egyptian Intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, to discuss a new ceasefire.

The Islamic groups are seeking hard and fast American guarantees that Israel will refrain from military action during a cease-fire. So far, the Americans have apparently only provided vague statements about it being ‘easier” to restrain Israel if a ceasefire is announced – and enforced -- by the Palestinians. But one change is appearing in Islamic Jihad rhetoric – while not promising to give up their campaign for an Islamic state ‘from the sea to the river.’ it says it is now ready to accept ‘at this stage’ an Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders. The Egyptian pressure for a cease-fire will continue next week when Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher is due to make a rare visit to Israel for meetings with Sharon and Foreign Minster Silvan Shalom.

German Foreign Minister Joschke Fischer was meanwhile here for the day, meeting last night with former Meretz chairman Yossi Sarid and today with Prime Minister Sharon and Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei’. Meanwhile, Haaretz was reporting today that while a Military Intelligence report was giving Palestinian Finance Minister Salam Fayyad high marks for his efforts to straighten out PA finances and institute civic reforms, a gloomy CIA report was predicting that no real peace will be possible between Israel and the Palestinians – and therefore Israel and the Arab world – until at least 2020.

But the CIA is apparently more optimistic than many Israeli analysts about the post Arafat era, saying the death of Yasser Arafat will set in motion a peace process that will lead to a peace deal. Many Israeli analysts predict that after Arafat’s demise, the Hamas would become the dominant force in Palestinian politics, while street gangs and criminal groups take control of the Palestinian street. Yet a Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research opinion poll reported yesterday says Palestinian support for suicide bombers is at the lowest since the start of the intifada three years ago – 48 percent of the Palestinians surveyed said they support suicide bombing, down from 59 percent in October – while another poll, by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics said 57.8 percent of the Palestinains wanted peace negotiations with Israel to resume, 83 percent supported a complete, mutual cease-fire and 53 percent said they would back a Palestinian Authority crackdown on militants who violated such a truce. But 80 percent said they worried a crackdown could lead to Palestinian civil war.

here’s also concern in Israel about civil war – the settlement movement is focusing on the settlement of Migron, a four year old West Bank community of about 40 families grown from one of the ‘hilltop outposts’ that Sharon, as foreign minister in Netanyahu’s government in the mid-1990s, proposed settlers capture ‘even without government permission … to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state.’ Since then, Sharon seems to have come a lng way, announcing he accepts the Bush vision of a two-state solution and most recently hinting about unilateral withdrawals that might involve moving some existing settlements. Netzarim and other Gaza settlements have been mentioned, but only the far Right appears interested in fighting for those. On the other hand, Migron, mentioned in the Bible (Samuel I, Chapter 14) as the site of a showdown between King Saul and the Philistines (won when Saul’s son Jonathan snuck into the Philistine camp and killed 20 of them, panicking the Philistines into a retreat) has been also mentioned by Sharon in private conversations as a likely settlement to be moved. The settlers say they’ll bring ‘thousands’ to Migron to fight any evacuation.

Thus, there is much anticipation about Sharon’s expected speech closing the Herzliya conference tomorrow evening. The prevailing wisdom is that he won’t detail any immediate steps but will reiterate and perhaps sharpen the message he has been delivering in recent weeks’ if the Palestinians are not capable of enforcing a (still non-existent) ceasefire and therefore are ‘not partners,’ Sharon will ‘consider’ undertaking unilateral steps to improve Israeli security, and that could mean ‘moving’ some settlements.

According to some, Sharon means only a few settlements, like Netzarim and Migron. According to others, including Ehud Olmert, Sharon’s deputy and Netanyahu opponent in any post-Sharon Likud leadership contest, dozens of settlements involving tens of thousands of settlers will have to be moved.

Recommended articles:

The Barrier of Jerusalem – Political Not Security by Gershon Baskin, December 09, 2003

FOUR HORSEMEN OF THE APOCYALYPSE On November 14, 2003, in a dramatic development, four former Shin Bet chiefs call on the political leadership to make peace with the Palestinians. Read the full interview.

Sharon’s policy is bringing us to the brink of existential abyss a speech by Victoria Buch to the Peace Coalition weekly vigil outside the Prime Minister's Residence, November 29, 2003

The Weathervanes Are Turning Uri Avnery analyzes the changes that led to Ehud Olmert saying Israel must quit the West Bank and Gaza.

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