The Situation

Text by Robert Rosenberg, images by Silvia Rosenberg (unless otherwise noted)

The criminal underworld and diplomatic undercurrents

Friday, December 12, 2003

Voyages to Promised Lands, Take off, acrylic on paper

he weekend press was taken up almost entirely by the underworld warring that took the lives of three innocent people yesterday when a bomb on a crowded Tel Aviv street failed to kill criminal kingpin Ze’ev Rosenstein. There was much tongue clucking over how the criminal underworld flourished over the last three years as the police invested so much effort in the security issue, chasing terrorists instead of more prosaic, but no less deadly ordinary criminals. But more serious analysts also noted that the police made an organizational decision that harmed their efforts to deal with the crime problem –separating the intelligence department form the criminal investigations department, led to inefficiency in the coordination of efforts against organized crime.

Furthermore, Israeli organized crime now has a global aspect that is far beyond the means of the Israeli police. Rosenstein, for example, is owner of a string of international casinos, mostly in Eastern Europe, and his crime family is aligned with another Israeli crime family, the Abutbuls, who also own casinos in Eastern Europe. It’s not known if Rosenstein is involved in drugs and the sex industry, both of which have become known as Israeli crime world industries with international connections. Israeli criminals are among the world’s leading Extasy distributors, while extensive Israel-Russian underworld connections are responsible for the sex slave trade that has grown so large that the State Department included Israel on a black list until last year and still keeps an eye on the country, where sex slaves are still bought and sold under the police’s nose.

But the underworld story did not completely overshadow the diplomatic undercurrents about what Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is planning to announce at an upcoming conference on national security at the Herzliya Interdisciplinary Center, the first private college in the country and the scene, last year, of his acceptance of the concept of the roadmap, if not all its details.

e is conducting a series of discussion with political leaders from both the coalition and Labor preparing a speech that he has already indicated will include reference to unilateral Israeli steps. According to National Religious Party deputy minister Yitzhak Levy, Sharon ‘indicated’ to NRP leaders that ‘eventually’ there won’t be any Jews in Gaza. Levy told Israel Radio that if that is the case, there also won’t be any NRP in the coalition.

Labor meanwhile is trying hard to keep mum about what’s being said in the meetings with its MKs – though Shimon Peres sounded angry when he came out of his meeting with Sharon, indicating that he still doesn’t believe Sharon will take the kind of steps Peres believes necessary, like a full withdrawal now from Gaza. Labor’s position has been consistently that if Sharon takes pro-peace steps, it will back him.

Everyone concedes that the unilateral withdrawal initiative Sharon is supposedly considering is largely the result of Yossi Beilin’s peripatetic diplomatic maneuvering that led to Geneva and from there to Washington, U.S. disappointment that Sharon did not keep his promises about removing outposts and easing conditions for the Palestinians, and a steep decline in Sharon’s standing in the public opinion polls.

Sharon’s plan apparently is based on holding a meeting with Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei’, perhaps as early as next week, which would open with a declaration that both sides support the roadmap but quickly deteriorate into a dialogue of the deaf in which neither side can provide the other with something that they can show their respective constituents as an achievement.

Sharon apparently believes that he will be able to persuade President Bush – his most important constituent – that it was the Palestinians who foiled the roadmap and therefore convince Bush to accept a unilateral Israeli withdrawal from about half the West Bank, a fence delineating a new, more eastern ‘Green Line’ border, and an Israel that would hunker down for at least a generation-long war against terror.

heoretically, the unilateral move is popular in Israel, though the debate over it has been largely muffled by the lack of details Sharon has provided about what he means. His deputy, Ehud Olmert doubled his popularity when he announced a unilateral withdrawal plan that would leave a Jewish state with 80 percent Jews and 20 percent Arabs – pretty much the proportions right now inside the Green Line. But Olmert is considered a slick politician more than a national leader, so his popularity surge only took him to about 15 percent of the population. Most people believe Olmert and Sharon are coordinated, but also believe that Sharon will be far less generous than Olmert is saying is necessary, and if that’s the case, it is highly unlikely that the Americans will line up behind Sharon’s plan.

Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, who may or may not know what Sharon has in mind (the smart money says Shalom does not know), lands in Washington today after a European swing in which he tried to sell the idea that Israel is ready to make plenty of concessions to the Palestinians if they just start fighting terror. The Palestinians meanwhile continue to say they are working on a cease-fire plan, and expect Israel to sign on, something Sharon is loathe to do, because of its implicit acceptance of the Hamas and Islamic Jihad as partners. Besides, if he formally accepts a cease-fire, he’ll be expected to take down all the outposts, many of which have grown into small settlements. Thus, while everyone is saying the roadmap is the best way to go, so far, nobody is ready to take the driver’s seat and step on the gas.

And meanwhile, the wheels of justice may be slow, but they are turning. The press at least appears convinced it is only a matter of time before the prosecution decides to indict one or both of Sharon’s sons – and the police still have a pile of questions to ask the prime minister, mostly along the lines of what did the prime minister know, and when. According to press reports, the police already have an idea of the real answer, and are curious if Sharon will give them the same dates.

Recommended articles:

The Barrier of Jerusalem – Political Not Security by Gershon Baskin, December 09, 2003

FOUR HORSEMEN OF THE APOCYALYPSE On November 14, 2003, in a dramatic development, four former Shin Bet chiefs call on the political leadership to make peace with the Palestinians. Read the full interview.

Sharon’s policy is bringing us to the brink of existential abyss a speech by Victoria Buch to the Peace Coalition weekly vigil outside the Prime Minister's Residence, November 29, 2003

The Weathervanes Are Turning Uri Avnery analyzes the changes that led to Ehud Olmert saying Israel must quit the West Bank and Gaza.

Also recommended

[an error occurred while processing this directive] in Frosties, the anthology of quotations

Today's Situation || Yesterday's Situation