The Situation

Text by Robert Rosenberg, images by Silvia Rosenberg (unless otherwise noted)

The flurries of talk begin to turn into a storm

Wednesday, December 10, 2003

Voyages to Promised Lands, Take off, acrylic on paper

ive Supreme Court Justices dealt a blow today to the Sharon family, ruling that Gilad Sharon’s right to silence during a police interrogation does not include documents. The decision paves the way for a Magistrate Court to go over each of the documents requested by the police for their probe into suspicions of bribery by the prime minister when he was serving as a foreign minister in Binyamin Netanyahu’s government and illegal foreign contributions to his election campaign inside the Likud during the 1999 primaries in that party after Netanyahu quit when he lost to Ehud Barak.

The court decision may or may not have been expected by the Sharons, who have been fighting tooth and nail against the police investigation by keeping silent when questioned by police, or answering with irrelevant answers, is part of the pressure that has been building on the prime minister to take action on the Palestinian front. Not that anyone is stating explicitly that Sharon might yet use a sudden flurry of diplomacy to avoid prosecution.

And the flurries of diplomatic maneuvering is turning into a veritable storm: Sharon yesterday not only did not reprimand Ehud Olmert, he also said that Israel might move settlements to improve its security situation irrespective of progress on the roadmap front, and if there is no progress on the roadmap front would indeed result in unilateral Israeli moves. The settlers and their political supporters in Sharon’s coalition are already threatening battles, whether for public opinion or with the army remains unclear, but the principle is clear – the Likud ideology is now more or less officially bankrupt, and the question has become what price they are ready to pay – and demand.

ommentators today were certain that Olmert’s unilateral withdrawal would be far more generous than the one Sharon must have in mind. Olmert spoke of the need for borders for the state that would keep an 80/20 Jewish/Arab ratio in a democratic Jewish state. Sharon said in the government just a few days ago that Israel will never, for example give up a Jewish settlement presence (as opposed to free access) in Hebron. And Sharon’s long-term plan includes an ‘eastern separation fence,’ on the eastern side of the putative Palestinian state, so Israel could keep the Jordan Valley as a security zone.

While there is growing anticipation about what Sharon has in mind – he’s promised to detail his intentions in the coming weeks, and one possibly venue is next week’s Herzliya Conference on National Security, where last year he announced acceptance in principle of the roadmap, though with many corrections – there is growing doubt that whatever he has in mind will really be very helpful for Israel. Too limited a withdrawal would be perceived as an attempt to get rid of American and international pressure while not truly moving forward toward a viable Palestinian state.

The Americans, in any case, have been hearing about Sharon’s plans from his bureau chief Dov Weisglass, and so far Condoleezza Rice has been more than non-committal, she’s insisted that the roadmap is the way to go while Colin Powell has been speaking out in favor of the roadmap -- and private initiatives such as the Geneva Accord and the People’s Voice. Weisglass’ name, by the way, has come up in the police probe as one of the people responsible for organizing the illegal campaign contributions in 1999.

In Washington, said Haaretz, an American official who asked not to be named, said reports of Sharon's remarks to the Knesset ‘looks like... they are using both a carrot and a stick, in that some of the reports indicate it’s in the context of imposing a unilateral settlement, a unilateral line, and abandoning the road map, negotiations, relations with the Palestinians etc., etc. … We don't consider that to be a viable solution. We don't consider that to be a solution that would add to the security and safety of Israel … we continue to believe the parties need to work on the road map [and reach] their agreements that way.’

From Geneva, Shalom was going to Rome, for a conference of the donor countries to the Palestinian Authority, which is seeking more money from the donor countries. Shalom will meet with several key Palestinian officials, including Finance Minister Salam Fayyad and External Affairs Minister Nabil Sha’ath. He has yet to make clear his position on the unilateral withdrawal issue, but has somewhat moderated his positions since becoming foreign minister and has yet to stake out an independent position from the prime minister. Hamas and Fateh continued meanwhile to exchange recriminations about which organization was to blame for the failure of the cease-fire talks in Cairo. Egypt is blaming Hamas – and its supporters in Iran and elsewhere – for the failure. But Israel Radio did note that an Islamic Jihad official said the organization was ready to accept a ‘temporary’ Palestinian state along the 1967 borders, beside Israel.

Recommended articles:

FOUR HORSEMEN OF THE APOCYALYPSE On November 14, 2003, in a dramatic development, four former Shin Bet chiefs call on the political leadership to make peace with the Palestinians. Read the full interview.

Sharon’s policy is bringing us to the brink of existential abyss a speech by Victoria Buch to the Peace Coalition weekly vigil outside the Prime Minister's Residence, November 29, 2003

The Weathervanes Are Turning Uri Avnery analyzes the changes that led to Ehud Olmert saying Israel must quit the West Bank and Gaza.

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