The Situation

Monday-Friday mid-day reports from Israel by Robert Rosenberg
Images by Silvia Rosenberg (unless otherwise noted)

More changes announced

Wednesday, November 05, 2003

Maybe the bloody land belongs to the cows, acrylic on paper, 70x50 painting by Silvia Rosenberg

The changes in Israeli policy toward the Palestinians that began becoming evident after the briefing Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon gave to the three major papers two weeks ago, continued to evolve today: the IDF announced it was lifting closures that have been in place around all the Palestinian cities since the Maxim restaurant massacre in Haifa in September, while the Defense Ministry said that Minister Shaul Mofaz had decided to order the evacuation of 20, out of about 100, of the settlement-expanding outposts put up by settlers over the last three years.

Foreign Minster Sivan Shalom was saying that Israel is now 'better prepared' to help Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei', than it was with the Mahmoud Abbas government. Even Henry Kissinger got into the act, using the occasion of a memorial ceremony in New York on the eighth anniversary of the Rabin assassination to give an interview in which he said that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon could make 'astonishing' concessions for peace.

But a closer look at the moves and statements reveals some problems. For one, the settlement movement warned Mofaz that any steps to remove any outposts – without first consulting with them – would be challenged on the ground. And it is becoming increasingly clear that there are gangs of rogue settlers not under any organizational control, who are operating as if there is no law that applies to them in the territories. Over the last three weeks, during the olive harvest, hundreds of Palestinian olive trees have been cut down – despite IDF instructions to regional commanders to protect olive groves and harvesters. Mofaz, usually the darling of the settler's has warned that the full extent of the law would be applied to those responsible. But nobody has been arrested and the Palestinians, based on past experience with the legal system in the territories, aren't counting on any arrests. Mofaz is under pressure, however, to arrange compensation for the Palestinian farmers whose trees were cut down. The Yesha Council, realizing it was bad publicity for them, condemned the vandalism, but nobody expects their condemnation to have influence on the extremists believed responsible.

As for the closures around the cities and villages of the West Bank – they've been lifted in the past – and quickly slapped back into place after a terror attack, and there is little doubt that a terror attack will follow the lifting of the tight restrictions that have been in place on Palestinian freedom of movement. Besides, the abatement in the closure basically consisted of more public transportation service being allowed to operate and a limited number of permits for travel in private cars. And even after the current restrictions are lifted (from everywhere, said the announcement, except Nablus and Jenin), longstanding restrictions on Palestinian movement will remain in place, not the least being the Israeli ban on Palestinian travel (except VIPs and people with special passes) between the West Bank and Gaza.

Shalom's hopes for Israeli goodwill gestures to the Abu Ala government still are far off, as well, and not only because Qurei' has yet to form his new government, still at loggerheads with PA Chairman Yasser Arafat over security issues. For example, Mofaz is planning to ask the Knesset to up the defense budget by at least NIS 200 million, just to protect settlements including those it is obvious to all will be evacuated. For another example, Sharon is determined to go ahead with a prisoner exchange with the Hezbollah, but has given the Shin Bet orders that none of the prisoners Israel releases have blood on their hands. Yet for a prisoner release to Qurei to have an impact in the territories as a goodwill gesture, it will need to be not only a mass release, but include leading prisoners, who mostly do have 'blood on their hands.'

Qurei's problems in forming a government were evident in a Mohammed Dahlan interview to Israel Radio today, in which the American and Israeli hope in the Abbas government for a crackdown – or at least some control of the armed factions explained that he did not expect the Qurei' government to last any longer than Abbas. But while he sounded bitter about Arafat, the Americans, the Israelis, and even the Palestinian public, he blamed the fall of the Abbas government on Israel, for its miserly approach to the government and for using the first opportunity to end the 'hudna cease-fire.'

Interestingly, while Israel has no intentions of halting a fight against terror groups, it is considering a different approach to the next hudna, which Qurei' is now working on with Hamas and Islamic Jihad, based on arrangements put into place by Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, who has become the godfather of cease-fire efforts. Israel claimed the last hudna was an internal Palestinian affair that had nothing to do with it, and which it bore no responsibility for maintaining. This time, there are indications in the press (with nothing official yet, however) that Israel might be ready to undertake an explicit cease-fire with the Palestinian Authority – not the armed factions –allowing Qurei some time to consolidate the cease-fire he arranges with the armed factions. But again, that depends on whether Qurei can solve his security issues with Arafat.

On a sadder note, David Bar-Illan, the former Jerusalem Post editor and concert pianist who turned the newspaper rightward after its acquisition by Conrad Black-owned Hollinger Corporation acquired it in 1990, passed away at the age of 73 after a lengthy illness.

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