Fenced in

Friday, September 19, 2003

From the Goddess paintings by Silvia Rosenberg, canvas, 35x50

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is caught between a rock and a hard place. He never wanted the 'separation' fence, doesn't believe it will prevent terror and knew from the start it would create problems with the Americans. Most significantly, like the settler movement, he opposed it because no matter how often he repeats that it is not a political fence, it could end up doing exactly what eh doesn't want to do – cut off some, if not all the settlements, from Israel. But the fence's popularity as a panacea for at least some of the terror is evident in every public opinion poll, so much so that even the settler movement, sensing that they are becoming isolated in Israeli society, has come out in favor of the fence – as long as it includes as many settlements as possible. That's fine with Sharon – but not with the Americans and Sharon has made keeping the Americans happy – or at least not turning them into his enemy -- the cornerstone of his policy as prime minister.

As long as the fence's construction was along the Green Line at the Gilboa in the north, and more or less along the Green Line in the Triangle area, the Americans could complain that Israel should do more about improving living conditions for Palestinians, but didn't turn vocal with their objections to the fence. But now, with pressure mounting on Sharon to start construction of the next stage, and include Ariel and its satellite settlements inside it, the pressure has begun from Washington, threatening to cut the loan guarantees, dollar for dollar, for Israel spending on the fence wherever it deviates from the Green Line.

So, today, Sharon is holding a rare Friday afternoon meeting of Likud ministers, to make sure they are behind him on his latest plan, as suggested by Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz: build the fence along the Green Line, but leave some stretches unfenced. Those areas can be filled with troops to prevent infiltrations, which is the purpose in the first place. It's anybody's guess if the Likud ministers will back him, but he needs a majority of them at least – and he still needs a confirmation from the Americans that the Mofaz plan is acceptable to them. So, immediately after today's meeting, Defense Ministry director-general Amos Yaron – and possibly Sharon's bureau chief Dov Weisglass – will fly to Washington to try to convince U.S. to withdraw its opposition to fence. But there’s no way Israel can afford to lose some $400 million (based on $1 million a kilometer) of the loan guarantees, if the U.S. indeed discounts its loan guarantees according n the dollar-to-dollar basis.

On another front, a 'senior defense source,' quoted by Israel Radio, defended Israel's decision not to include Ron Arad on the negotiations agenda with the Hezbollah as the two sides, with German mediation, hammer out an exchange deal. According to that 'senior source,' th Hezbollah doesn't know where Arad is. The current assessment is that if Arad is still alive, he's in an Iranian prison, somewhere outside of Tehran. The newspapers this morning were torn between the human interest aspect of the Arad case – the air force navigator shot down over south Lebanon nearly two decades ago, his family's campaign to win his release, wife and children and brothers – and the hardheaded negotiations underway. Those negotiations are reportedly including Palestinians and there is speculation that Israel might solve a major headache with the deal – releasing Marwan Barghouti from jail and sending him to Lebanon. Sources in the Prime Minister's Office are denying it, but there are some insistent reports that the charismatic Fateh leader, considered the most popular secular Palestinian politician after Arafat, is involved – through emissaries – in both the Hezbollah-Israel negotiations, and Abu Ala's ongoing efforts to form a government. The latest reports from that front say the next PA government could be announced next week –and will include at least one minister 'identified' with the political wing of the Hamas.

Meanwhile, IDF troops were in Jenin, arresting suspects, while in Gaza, five mortars hit some settlements, causing no casualties and little damage. Haaretz was reporting this morning that a group of reserve pilots group is refusing to carry out targeted killings of Palestinians, while Natan Sharansky, who got a pie thrown in his face at Rutgers University last night by a pro-Palestinian American-Jewish student, told Israel Radio that American campuses are the 'real' Israeli-Palestinian battlefield.

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