Cognitive dissonance

Monday, September 15, 2003

Touch the fire painting by Silvia Rosenberg 50x70 cm on paper

With four Israelis kidnapped by Colombian guerrillas filling the headlines, and the government meeting to discuss a NIS 10 billion cut in the 2004 budget few Israelis seem to be aware that much of the West and certainly the Arab world is focused on the Muqata in Ramallah, half expecting an Israeli military operation to hustle Yasser Arafat out of the region and set the Middle East alight with rioting. As one commentator said today, Israel is suffering from cognitive dissonance, unable to grasp that its perception of reality and the rest of the world’s is not simply another case of ‘the whole world’s against us.’

Perhaps the Israeli public is not so concerned about it because it knows that the government decision last week that set the whole issue into play -- and propelled Arafat back into center stage -- is entirely up to President George Bush, and nobody expects Bush to approve any plan that so obviously would destabilize the region. Nonetheless, Israel was formally accusing the UN Security Council of moral hypocrisy for its consideration of a draft resolution against an Arafat expulsion. So far, there are no indications the Americans are taking any action against the resolution, which was drafted by the Arabs states.

Indeed, there is a somewhat conspiratorial theory going around that Sharon was against a cabinet decision for an expulsion, because of Bush’s opposition, but leaked, through his bureau chief Dov Weisglass that Bush was in favor. Then Sharon set up his ministers to vote to expel Arafat. That way, Sharon guaranteed public American opposition to the move, thus proving to his public that he’d like to harm Arafat but Washington won’t let him.

Things however, seem to have gotten somewhat out of control. Apparently unable to take a hint, Defense Minster Shaul Mofaz, as well as Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, keeps talking about how killing Arafat would be preferable to expelling him. That kind of talk makes it impossible for Mofaz to be welcome this week in Washington where he had high-profile meetings scheduled with Vice President Cheney, National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Pentagon officials. Sharon got the hint and told Mofaz to stay home. Officially, the reason is the heightened security alert in Israel, but nobody in the diplomatic business buys that.

Meanwhile, at the Muqata, the daily demonstrations in support of Arafat have turned into a regular happening, including schoolchildren, performers on a stage, and 5 p.m. appearances by Arafat who waves and blows kisses to the crowds. The demonstrations at the Muqata are not huge, but they could be effective human shields if Sharon intends to actually go ahead with an Arafat expulsion.

On the government budget issue, Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is fighting for both his hyper-capitalist ideology and for his political stature, as he finds Mofaz and many other Likud ministers lined up against the supra-Thatcherite budget that Netanyahu keeps promising will create growth next year -- and which includes a deep cut in defense. Mofaz did not formally call to order Chief of Staff Moshe Ya’alon, who has called the defense budget cut a ‘knife in the back’ of the army, though Mofaz did say that such talk was unnecessary.

When Olmert and Education Minister Limor Livnat -- both opponents of the budget proposal -- suggested the cabinet vote be postponed as ministers work out compromises with the treasury, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon turned angry, insisting that he wanted a government decision on the budget today "because the business sector expects it." But he was facing a tough battle in a reportedly stormy cabinet session at which ministers said the proposed NIS 10 billion budget cut went too far.

In other developments, Army Radio was reporting that Israel is considering a ‘gesture to Jordan’s King Abdullah -- the release of all or almost all the Jordanian nationals in Israeli prisons, while Israel Radio was reporting that the International Atomic Energy Agency, under pressure from the Americans to clamp down on Iran’s nuclear program, would be deliberating on Israel’s nuclear program. And in Haifa, a dark cloud of pollution was hovering over the bay as a result of a fault at the nearby oil refineries.