Expulsion, assassination, invasion, occupation

Thursday, September 11, 2003

The Israeli security cabinet was to meet this afternoon with a much-publicized majority of ministers favoring the expulsion of Yasser Arafat. Indeed, the army took over the Palestinian Cultural Affairs building, a multi-story building not far from the Muqata, with a view of the Ramallah compound where Arafat has been under siege for nearly two years.

According to Israel Radio's military correspondent, the move into the building was "a message to Arafat and the Palestinian Authority,' which was supposed to have a new government sworn in today at the Palestinian Legislative Council except that Israeli checkpoints stopped some PLC members so the meeting was postponed to next week, mostly likely Sunday or Monday. Israel blamed the bureaucracy for the delayed PLC members. Prime Minister designate Ahmed Qurei' was speaking of forming a small 'emergency cabinet.'

Practically every hour today, the names mentioned as members of the new government changed, possibly a result of pressure from Arafat on Qurei'. For example, last night, Mohammed Dahlan was mentioned as a minister, and this morning, his name was gone. Last night there was no mention of Hanan Ashrawi, this morning, she was on the list. In charge of the armed forces will by Gen. Nasser Yusuf, and Palestinian sources say he will have command of all the forces, not the 40 percent Dahlan had. Fateh's central committee was meanwhile meeting today in Ramallah and veteran members were demanding that the government grow to 20 members - so some of them could be part of it.

But despite the 'messages' of the army moves this morning and today's headlines announcing a majority of ministers favoring the expulsion, the smart money is on Prime Minister Ariel Sharon gritting his teeth and leaving Arafat alone. The last thing Sharon needs is a clash with Washington, so he will wait for an explicit green light from President Bush before taking any action that physically affects Arafat. And the last thing Bush needs is another flareup of anger in the Arab world against him if he allows Israel to move against the most veteran Ara leader in the Middle East. But messages can be sent. So, while Sharon won't move on an Arafat expulsion, he's happy to let his ministers and the Right wing MKs of his coalition let off steam about it. And meanwhile, the heads of the security services are opposed to expelling the Palestinian leader, so Sharon will have 'professional' backing for a decision to leave Arafat be.

The same holds regarding a reoccupation of Gaza, another proposal much touted by some ministers, particularly since the breakdown of the hudna. It would be very costly in lives (both Israeli and Palestinian) and money - and to make that clear to the ministers, the army leaked today that it has already been forced to cut, for financial reasons, about 20 percent of the forces the Southern Command maintains in the Gaza area. Another message.

There was also a message from the Knesset, this time to the Israeli public. National Religious Party MK Shaul Yahalom, chairing a Knesset subcommittee on the budget for the separation fence, decided not to allow a vote approving the government's request for an allocation because the proposed route for the next section of the fence does not include Ariel, Ma'ale Adumim, Gush Etzion and other settlement areas. He explicitly told Israel Radio that he would not approve any more funding for the fence, unless he and his committee is presented with an overall plan that shows the fence is not on the Green Line.

And on a completely different front, after a lengthy police inquiry, Attorney General Elyakim Rubinstein sent his own message: he has decided to prosecute two Likud MKs for voting twice during Knesset votes on the government's emergency economic plan passed earlier this year. The two will get one last chance to present their case in special one-on-one hearings with Rubinstein, but if they don't convince him, the Knesset House Committee will be told that they face fraud, breach of trust and other charges and the committee will be asked to strip their political immunity.

The Other Israel

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