Taking their time, Indian style

Tuesday, September 9, 2003

Ahmed Qurei' is in no hurry to take on the thankless task of Palestinian prime minister, demanding that the U.S. and Europe guarantee that Israel will cooperate by taking steps to implement he road map, stop threatening Yasser Arafat, and take steps to ease conditions on the ground for Palestinians, like lifting checkpoints and ending assassinations of Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders. In interview with Haaretz, Qurei' said he wants a cease-fire with Israel, not an internal Palestinian cease-fire, as a first step.

But Israel seems to be saying it's in no hurry to see Qurei' as Palestinian prime minister, if he and his government are going to be 'tied to Yasser Arafat's umbilical cord,' as Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said today, despite somewhat less strident statements made yesterday by Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom about judging Qureia by his actions.

That leaves it up to the Americans and Europeans to break the deadlock, which anyway will remain in place for the coming week, since no real decisions will be made in Israel as long as Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is in India. While the Europeans are openly eager to get involved - yet know that they can't get their foot in the door without American permission (which they hoped to get after listing the Hamas as a terror group) -- the Americans seem to be of two minds.

Reports in Israel say that one faction in the administration is pressing for stepped up involvement to save Bush's two-state 'vision' while another suggesting that it's become a no-win situation for the president and he'd best keep as far as possible from the conflict and trying to resolve it.

In any case, when Sharon gets back at the end of this week, he'll be facing other problems. The police already leaked that they plan to question him about the various scandals involving him - or as he says, his sons - and the calendar is falling into place for when that might happen: On Sunday, a Tel Aviv District Court will decide whether Sharon's son Gilad has to hand over documents in his possession concerning hundreds of thousands of dollars in financial transfers in and out of the country, ostensibly made to cover Sharon's illegal campaign contributions from 1999.

As if that isn't enough for Sharon to worry about, he will also be facing an open clash between his two putative heirs in the Likud - Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Mofaz. Netanyahu yesterday released his proposed 2004 budget, which includes an overall NIS 3 billion cut in the defense budget over the coming years, and while some suggest that the army could be cut much more, the chief of staff and Mofaz are up in arms about the proposed cut. Wisely, Netanyahu specifically said he's leaving the NIS 3 billion cut from defense in Sharon's hands. The budget issue will become increasingly important in Israeli politics in coming weeks as ministers battle against Netanyahu's proposed 15 percent across the board cuts. But the budget will also impinge on relations with the U.S.: Netanyahu promised the Americans a 3 percent deficit when he asked for the $9 billion in loans guarantees, but the budget he presented yesterday foresees a 4 percent deficit.

The Other Israel

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