Abu Ala's turn

Monday, September 8, 2003

Detail from Altar, painting by Slvia Rosenberg, 200x200 cm.

The dramatic weekend events are giving way to a surprisingly anti-climactic week. While the Palestinians focused on Yasser Arafat's nod to Ahmed Qureia (Abu Ala) to replace Mahmoud Abbas as prime minister, Israelis enjoyed the illusion of an end to diplomatic isolation as Prime Minister Ariel Sharon flew off to India for the first visit to ever by an Israeli premier to the subcontinent. And as long as he's there, no dramatic move against Arafat is expected, particularly since the Americans have made clear they don't want any Israeli surprises now that President Bush has admitted that there's still plenty of work cut out for them in Iraq.

India has surpassed Turkey as Israel's biggest customer for weapons systems and Israel is on the verge of surpassing Russia as India's largest weapons supplier, aiming at $2 billion worth of technology next year after $1.2 billion in sales this year. Among the most advanced systems was the Phalcon airborne radar system (built into a Russian plane) that Israel originally planned to sell to China, but which the U.S. scotched. The big prize for Israel would be the first foreign sale of its Arrow anti-missile missile system, largely financed by the U.S. Jerusalem is hoping for Washington's permission to come through this winter. Meanwhile, the U.S. is wary, fearful it could upset the delicate balance between India and Pakistan. So to assuage American concerns, the main public talk this 9/11 anniversary week in New Delhi will be the 'joint war against terror.'

Closer to home, Qureia was telling associates and leaking to the press that before taking up the premiership he would be seeking guarantees from the U.S. and Europe about how they would help him both move the peace process forward and protect Yasser Arafat from ever more bluntly expressed Israeli plans to expel the Palestinian Authority chairman/president. His associates were claming, however, that he has agreed in principle to accept the position.

The procedure involves Arafat first making the appointment official by offering it to Qureia later today, then the name being submitted to the PLC, and it giving Qureia up to five weeks to form a government. Abbas used up all that time, but Qureia is generally acknowledged to be a much better politician and probably won't need so much time. He is likely to name Gen. Yusuf Nasser, an Arafat crony, as his interior minister - and Mohammed Dahlan will not be in the next government. Jibril Rajoub, however, might be, and Rajoub has no compunctions about using force against the Islamic fundamentalists, his arch-enemies in the West Bank, at least.

MK Yuval Steinitz, chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, and often considered a spokesman for Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu told Israel Radio that Israel should not only expel Arafat, but also 'Abu Ala, Abu Mazin, and all the other Abu oldsters from Tunisia. They should be sent back to Tunisia in humiliation, to prove to whoever follows that Israel will have nothing to do with people who promote terror against Israel.' And then what would happen, he was asked. 'Free elections in the territories.' How can you guarantee the Hamas and Ahmed Yassin won't be elected, or someone more radical? he was asked. 'I can't guarantee that. But at least whoever is elected will know not to use terror against us.' Yossi Beilin, the Israeli Oslo architect, reminded Israel Radio that Qureia was not only the Palestinian Oslo architect but also the Palestinian negotiator at the Wye River plantation, and that recently he had met with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

More immediately, the country was braced for a Hamas retaliation for the failed assassination attempt on Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, but it was unnamed ministers who were telling the press that they are afraid that won the headlines, as a result of Hamas spokesmen making threats about going after ministers. The Shin Bet was claiming to have 37 specific terror alerts, still much below the 50-70 daily alerts before the hudna cease-fire. In Gaza, in any case, six mortars hit Gush Katif settlements, but no damage or casualties were reported, while an armed Palestinian, apparently trying to infiltrate a northern Gaza settlement, was shot dead by soldiers.

In another development, the police had to release another one of the settlers being held as a suspect in a Jewish terror gang, for lack of evidence. Police say the settlers are doing everything they can to obstruct the investigation. Eight remain in custody.

In Hebron, the army lifted the curfew that has more or less been place for the past six months, but there was very few Palestinians in the streets. Nonetheless, the settlers are furious that the curfew was lifted.

The Other Israel

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