Gambling with lives and money

Thursday, August 28, 2003

Jeep in the night sky painting by Silvia Riosenberg paper 50x70 cm.

IDF operations continued in the West Bank against suspected Palestinian cells and weapons caches, while in Gaza, Palestinians fired at least 13 mortar shells at settlements and soldiers in Gaza overnight and this morning. Senior officers in the Southern Command were telling the press this morning that they are ready to move into Gaza on land - and not only with air assaults against 'pinpointed targets.' But so far, none of the mortar and anti-tank fire directed at Israelis in the Strip caused any casualties. Gaza settler leaders are issuing increasingly vehement calls through Israel Radio and Army Radio for the army to move in but apparently the army will only get such orders if there are casualties. However, shortly after 1 P.M. today four Qassam rockets fell in a southern suburb of Ashkelon, about four kilometers north of Gaza, a precedent in the ongoing war and the type of precedent that could prompt a move into the Beit Hanoun area, where the Qassams are launched from.

The Hamas meanwhile turned down a call from Yasser Arafat for a renewal of the hudna cease-fire, which Israel called propaganda and the U.S. dismissed since Arafat is 'part of the problem ... not part of the solution.' Indeed, the Israeli perspective - backed by the U.S. and most of its media - is that the Palestinians are in a power struggle between Arafat and Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas, who faces a possible vote of no confidence in the Palestinian Legislative Council next Monday after he presents a 100-day report on what his government has so far accomplished.

The prevailing wisdom right now in Israel is that Abbas has less than a 50-50 chance to survive such a vote and that he will be replaced by Abu Ala. But the Israeli political odds makers have been saying for months that Abbas is about to be toppled. Jerusalem continues to reiterate the Palestinians must take firm action against the Hamas and Islamic Jihad before Israel lifts the military pressure it is applying around Gaza and inside the West Bank - and so far, says Israel, the PA is not taking that action.

However, there was evidence today that the PA is moving against the Hamas and Islamic Jihad, though far more cautiously than Israel would prefer. Islamic charities in Gaza reported today that the PA has frozen 36 of their bank accounts. The PA refused to comment.

The EU's Javier Solana, worried that the Aqaba process effectively neutralized the Quartet and looking for a way back into the Middle East political process, found an elegant way around the Israeli boycott of foreign statesmen who meet with Arafat when they are in the region. He's skipping a visit to the PA this weekend when he arrives for his first trip to Jerusalem since the spring. Solana says it's so he is not perceived as intervening in the Palestinian political crisis. Israel is claiming credit for his compliance with its policy. Solana will go to Syria and Saudi Arabia after meeting with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom.

On the domestic front, Haaretz reported this morning that police have won a green light in Austria to investigate ties between Transportation Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Austrian businessman Martin Schlaff, who owns 50 percent of the Jericho casino in partnership with Arafat's personal financier, Mohammed Rashid. Schall is also believed to be behind the monies in the scandal involving Sharon and his sons. Lieberman accused the police of having racist attitudes toward Russian immigrants. And while he admitted that he took a $1 million personal guarantee from an Austrian businessman - not Schlaff - for his Yisrael Beitenu party's credit lines during the 1999 election campaign, he refused to comment on his relationship with Schlaff. Schlaff, who has interests in casinos worldwide, is interested in wining the franchise for legal gambling in Israel, an issue on the Sharon government's agenda that is being vigorously promoted by Avigdor Yitzhaki, director general of the Prime Minister's Office.